Ups and Downs of the Informal Market in Cuba: This is how the Currency Sales Look Today

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By CiberCuba Editorial Team

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 - 07:05

100-dollar bill and 50-euro bill (Reference image)Photo © CiberCuba/ChatGpt

The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) shows no signs of slowing down in the informal Cuban market. In recent hours, the MLC has changed price again, this time on the rise.

The digital monetary monstrosity that the Cuban regime has been operating with since 2019 has risen to 400 CUP, marking a slight rebound after several days of a downward trend.

The freely convertible currency (MLC), created by the regime as a mechanism to capture foreign currency, has ultimately become one of the most volatile indicators of the already fragmented exchange market on the island.

Although it was initially presented as a temporary solution to supply stores with hard currency, in practice it has become trapped between the structural shortage of foreign exchange, state restrictions, and the growing dependence on the informal market.

Exchange Rate Evolution

Its value, which lacks a clear backing and a transparent official rate against the Cuban peso, is determined on the street, where supply and demand react swiftly to any economic or political signal.

The constant fluctuations of the MLC reflect the fragility of the Cuban monetary system and the population's distrust in this instrument.

The slight uptick on March 31 follows the currency closing the previous trading day around 396.5 CUP, after recording a drop of 0.9% and confirming a downward trend in the last days of the month.

In the March balance, the MLC is expected to close in the negative, with an accumulated loss of around 8.5 CUP (2.1 %) compared to the end of February, making it the worst-performing currency in the informal market during this period.

During the month, the MLC reached peaks of up to 420 CUP in mid-March, with sharp fluctuations of up to 20 CUP in a single day, before correcting downward. Its behavior has been characterized by high volatility and a significant dispersion in the offers, which have ranged between 370 and 450 CUP, reflecting a market without a clear consensus on its real value.

Unlike the dollar or the euro, which are perceived as safer havens, the MLC directly depends on internal government decisions and the availability of products in state stores, leading to sharp fluctuations in its value.

Rumors about changes in sales policies, shortages, or new restrictions are often enough to drive up their value or cause sudden drops, showcasing a highly sensitive market that lacks stability.

What's happening with the dollar and the euro?

The dollar and the euro remain unchanged today.

The US dollar continues to be valued at 515 CUP, and the euro at 580 CUP, according to the daily report from elTOQUE, which documents the fluctuations of currencies.

Both currencies have maintained a stability that now exceeds nine consecutive days, one of the longest streaks of the year.

However, this apparent calm coexists with a deeply fragmented market: in the case of the dollar, recent offers have ranged between 417 and 605 CUP, a difference of up to 188 CUP, which highlights very disparate expectations about its real value.

The euro, for its part, also shows a wide dispersion in the informal market, with recent ranges between 520 and 645 CUP, confirming that despite the stability in the reference rate, a high level of uncertainty persists among buyers and sellers.

In monthly terms, both the dollar and the euro have shown relatively moderate behavior in March.

The dollar has only accumulated a growth of around 1 % since the end of February, while the euro has increased by approximately 1.8 %.

However, in the annual balance, both currencies maintain a strong upward trend, with accumulated increases of 160 CUP (45.1 %) for the dollar and 220 CUP (61.1 %) for the euro.