Changes in communist systems arise from internal crises and social pressure, not from agreements with Washington, recalls a Cuban economist

The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal reminded this Saturday that the significant political and economic changes observed in countries ruled by communist parties have not resulted from direct negotiations with the United States or other powers, but rather from internal crises and accumulated social pressures.

In a comment posted on his Facebook page El Estado como tal, Monreal noted that the transformations that took place in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, which led to the end of communist regimes and the transition to market economies, as well as the reforms undertaken in China and Vietnam without the collapse of the single-party system, emerged from internal dynamics unique to those societies.

According to the economist, these historical processes were driven by a combination of economic crises, decisions made by the ruling elites, and pressures from the population and opposing sectors.

Although interactions with the West had an indirect influence, he emphasized that they were not the main cause of the changes.

Monreal clarified that his observation constitutes a historical fact and not a political prediction, referencing the current context marked by recent exchanges between U.S. officials and representatives of the Cuban regime.

These contacts were revealed by the American outlet Axios, which reported on meetings held on April 11 in Havana between a delegation from the State Department and members of the Cuban power structure.

During the meetings, Washington conveyed to his interlocutors that the island's economy is in “free fall” and that the ruling elites have a limited window to implement reforms before the deterioration becomes irreversible.

One of the participants identified by the U.S. side was Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro and head of the Personal Security Directorate, responsible for protecting the ruling elite.

The official, known as "El Cangrejo," is considered by Washington to be a close interlocutor within the circle of the former leader, who at 94 years old continues to be viewed as a central figure in the regime's power structure.

The discussions also included U.S. demands related to compensation for properties confiscated after 1959, the release of political prisoners, the expansion of political freedoms, and the eventual holding of free elections.

The economic context adds pressure to these diplomatic contacts. Projections from the Economist Intelligence Unit estimate that the Cuban economy could contract by 7.2% in 2026, accumulating a decline of nearly 23% since 2019, amidst a crisis marked by inflation, food shortages, deterioration of basic services, and prolonged blackouts in several regions of the country.