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The defector pilot and former lieutenant colonel of the Revolutionary Armed Forces Orestes Lorenzo Pérez published a lengthy analysis on his Facebook account in which he debunks the campaign of combat readiness that the Díaz-Canel regime has intensified in light of the possibility of a U.S. military intervention.
The analysis comes days after Díaz-Canel publicly warned, on April 16, about a possible military aggression by the United States against Cuba, describing the moment as "absolutely challenging" in the context of the 65th anniversary of the Revolution.
For Lorenzo, the central issue with the FAR is not their outdated weaponry, but something deeper: "The Cuban Armed Forces inability to defend themselves does not primarily stem from their material equipment, but from their ethical motivation: the well-known 'combative morale.' And of that, in Cuba, there isn't even a gram left."
The former officer outlines a historical evolution of the Cuban army: after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Fidel Castro transformed the FAR into an instrument of internal control, purging the most capable officers and promoting the most incompetent and loyal ones.
"The first officers to retire were the most intelligent and capable. Anyone who had two fingers' worth of sense or shone with their own light was removed from the Armed Forces—one way or another," wrote Lorenzo.
According to his analysis, the real mission of the Cuban army ceased to be national defense decades ago.
"The blind loyalty to the Castro family became the sole requirement. No more defending the homeland. No more confronting the external enemy. Protecting this family from the people: that was —and continues to be— the new and only mission," he emphasized.
Lorenzo also questioned the Territorial Troops Militias, whose lack of weaponry reveals, according to him, the regime's fear of its own population: "Where is their weaponry to fight? They fear the people so much that they don't even dare to arm them."
Regarding the only real plan attributed to the Cuban military leadership, it is unequivocal: "The only well-developed plan they have is how they are going to run, how they are going to hide, and how they will try to escape."
The analysis by Lorenzo aligns with the assessments of other former officials from the FAR. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Mario Riva Morales stated in January 2026 that the Cuban military has no chance against the United States, describing the people's war doctrine as obsolete and ineffective.
Technical data supports this assessment: the MiG-29 aircraft of the FAR are out of operation due to a shortage of Russian spare parts, over 60% of Cuban radars are inoperative, and Cuba lacks integrated long-range air defense systems.
The regime declared 2026 "Year of Preparation for Defense" and began intensive exercises for anti-aircraft brigades and militias every weekend, a display that Lorenzo describes as theater for internal consumption.
"All that bellicose and patriotic nonsense they proclaim is pure comedy for internal consumption in Cuba. And that, dear friends, the Southern Command of the United States knows and understands very well," concludes the pilot.
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