The United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, outlined a stark scenario regarding the future of Cuba during an interview granted on April 27, 2026, in Washington.
In his statements, he made it clear that the island faces only two possible outcomes: total collapse or an economic transformation that, under the current leadership, he deems unfeasible.
"Only two things can happen in Cuba," Rubio stated, highlighting the central focus of his analysis.
The head of U.S. diplomacy stated directly what those two destinations are.
On one hand, a worsening of the crisis leading to the collapse of the system: “either the situation worsens much more and it collapses.”
On the other hand, a potential economic recovery depends on deep reforms: “The other possibility is that the situation improves. But for it to improve, they need very substantial and serious economic reforms.”
However, Rubio was categorical in ruling out that second path under the current leadership: “Serious economic reforms are impossible with these people in charge. It cannot happen.”
In this way, his proposal conveys an implicit yet powerful message: neither of the two scenarios supports the continuation of the regime as it is conceived today.
“A failed state” marked by crisis
Rubio supported his diagnosis with a harsh characterization of present-day Cuba: "Cuba is two things at this moment. Firstly, it is a failed state. In reality, it does not have a real economy, which is why its population lives in extreme misery and also lacks political freedoms."
He attributed the economic deterioration to structural problems within the system: "The reason why Cuba's economy has been collapsing for a long time is that Marxism, in general, doesn't work," and he added criticisms of the ruling elite's management: "They don't know anything about economics and they don't care at all about the economy. They only care about control."
Although he described the collapse as one of the possible outcomes, Rubio warned that this scenario would also have negative consequences for the United States: "A humanitarian collapse 90 miles from our shores, in a country of 11 or 12 million people, is not good for the United States."
The geographic proximity makes the Cuban crisis a matter of security and regional stability for Washington.
Cuba as a strategic piece for U.S. rivals.
The Secretary of State also emphasized the geopolitical value of the island in the current international context.
"It is a country that welcomes adversaries and competitors. The Chinese, the Russians, and others regularly use Cuba for their own purposes, just 90 miles from our shores," he stated.
In this regard, he emphasized that the situation in Cuba is not comparable to other global scenarios: “That is what sets Cuba apart from any situation in the Middle East or what is happening in Asia. It is literally 90 miles from Key West.”
Rubio made the U.S. Administration's stance on that reality clear: "We will not allow a foreign army, nor an intelligence or security apparatus, to operate with impunity 90 miles off the shores of the United States. That will not happen."
The Secretary of State's proposal summarizes a vision in which Cuba is trapped between two paths: collapse or a structural reform that, according to Washington, cannot occur under the current regime.
In both cases, the message is clear: the future of the island, as projected by Rubio, inevitably leads to a scenario that does not guarantee the continuity of the current political system.
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