Related videos:
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects that Venezuela will grow 6.5% in 2026, making it the fastest-growing economy in South America and the second in the entire region, according to the update of projections published this Monday by the United Nations agency.
In South America, Venezuela leads the projected growth for 2026 at 6.5%, followed by Paraguay (4.5%), Argentina (3.3%), and Peru (3.2%). At the regional level, only Guyana surpasses it, with an estimated expansion of 16.3% driven by its oil boom.
The figure contrasts with the average for Latin America and the Caribbean, which CEPAL estimates will be 2.2% for 2026, a slight downward revision from the 2.3% projected in December 2025. "Most economies in the region will show less economic dynamism in 2026 compared to what was observed in 2025," the agency stated.
In 2025, Venezuela had already recorded a growth of 8.9% according to ECLAC, accumulating nearly 20 consecutive quarters of expansion following the economic collapse that reduced its GDP by over 80% between 2014 and 2021.
The most recent turning point was the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026. Under the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez, Washington implemented a supervised plan for the sale of Venezuelan oil and gradually lifted sanctions. Rubio outlined a three-stage plan for Venezuela that included the reactivation of the energy sector as a central focus.
Chevron tripled its exports of Venezuelan crude oil, from 100,000 barrels daily in December 2025 to 300,000 in March 2026, and oil companies are betting on Venezuela again in a context of regulatory opening. In January 2026, the country also approved a reform to the Hydrocarbons Law to attract foreign investment.
The recovery, however, has fragile foundations. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projects an inflation rate of 271.6% for Venezuela in 2026, following the 475.3% recorded in 2025, while poverty affects over 70% of the population. Analysts agree that part of the growth is due to a rebound effect following the previous collapse.
At the opposite end of the regional spectrum is Cuba, which is projected to have the worst outlook in all of Latin America: a contraction of -6.5% for 2026, following a decline of -3.8% in 2025. The ECLAC had already certified the severity of the Cuban economy in previous projections, and Cuba and Haiti are the only countries in the region experiencing sustained declines in gross domestic product.
The cumulative contraction of the Cuban economy since 2019 could exceed 23% if the 2026 projection materializes, a figure that economist Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo described as "a brutality over seven years."
Filed under: