Cuba ranks last among 27 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in terms of macroeconomic management, according to the latest forecasts from ECLAC for 2026 as analyzed by economist Elías Amor: Cuba's GDP is expected to decline by 6.5% this year, the worst figure in the entire region.
“The Cuban economy is set to fall by six and a half percent in its gross domestic product this year. In real terms, this means that the physical production of goods and services in the economy is plummeting,” warns Amor. “We are no longer talking about stagnation; we are talking about recession.”
This downturn is not an isolated incident. Between 2020 and 2024, the Cuban economy shrank by an accumulated 11%; in 2025 it fell another 3.8%; and if the forecasts for 2026 hold true, the total contraction since 2020 will reach almost 26% of GDP.
"I really like to use the saying 'it rains on the wet',” notes the economist, emphasizing that the accumulation of downturns makes the current crisis comparable to the Special Period, but with a crucial difference: that contraction was concentrated in time, while this one has persisted for six consecutive years over an already weakened economy.
In the 2025-2026 biennium, Cuba will experience a decline of 10.3% in GDP, more than double that of Haiti, the second worst-performing economy in the region, which will decline by only 4.1%.
"Not only does Cuba have a lower GDP per capita than Haiti, but the Cuban economy also has the lowest GDP growth," points out Amor.
The contrast with the rest of the region is striking: the overall growth of Latin America and the Caribbean will be 2.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2025. "The environment is complex and challenging for Cuba, where the managers are unable to provide a solution for the economy," concludes the analyst.
Amor identifies three structural factors that explain the collapse. The first is the economic model: "The Marxist-Leninist model that governed the 2019 Constitution has come to an end and no longer provides answers to the major economic problems affecting economies in the 21st century."
The second is the disappearance of Venezuelan oil supply, which began to decline in 2024, turned into "a true chaos" in 2025, and in 2026 is practically non-existent.
"In Cuba, they have spent 20 years investing in hotel construction instead of focusing on energy investment, in the energy sector, which is one of the fundamental infrastructures," criticizes Amor, adding that "using Chinese solar panels does not solve the energy problem in Cuba."
The third factor is the demographic crisis. "An economy where the population is not growing and is aging is an economy doomed to stagnation and recession, and in Cuba, this is already happening and in an alarming manner," warns the economist.
More than 250,000 Cubans emigrated in 2024, primarily young people of working age, exacerbating the aging of the workforce.
Regarding tourism, Amor is categorical: it is not the cause of the collapse but rather a consequence. "Tourism is an effect. If the economy is not doing well, if the economy collapses, then tourism, logically, cannot do well either."
The economist also denounces the regime's attitude towards this data: the official newspaper Granma dedicated only half a page to the CEPAL report without mentioning the specific results for Cuba. "The authorities decided to talk about what is happening in Latin America and not address the situation in Cuba. I believe this is a serious irresponsibility," declares Amor.
The Economist Intelligence Unit goes even further in its pessimism: it estimates a contraction of the Cuban GDP of up to 7.2% by 2026, which would further worsen a situation where the average Cuban salary in 2025 was only 6,930 pesos, equivalent to about 15 dollars per month.
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