From the Special Period to the current crisis

The authorities of the Cuban communist regime are preparing to face a scenario they describe as “option zero,” and they are announcing a “contingency plan” whose general outlines have been presented on the Cuban television program “Mesa Redonda.”

As the measures intended for implementation during this period become evident and their effects begin to manifest in the daily reality of Cubans, questions have arisen about a potential parallel between the Special Period and the current economic and social crisis.

The truth is that they have very few things in common.

Different origin

All Cubans remember that the Special Period took the Castro economy by surprise when the collapse of real socialism occurred in Eastern Europe and the USSR, which left it without external support to sustain its lack of competitiveness. The source of the crisis during the Special Period was in Europe and had until then been a faithful and responsible ally for three decades.

Now, the current crisis admits no surprises; the dependence on Venezuela is over, and with it, the regime can blame the neighbor to the north for the humanitarian consequences of the crisis. The origin of this crisis is well-known, and above all, there is an understanding of why and how to confront it.

The different decline of the economy

In 1991, the Cuban economy and society were enjoying a level of well-being and quality of life that is completely different from that of 2026. For this reason, the collapse of the GDP was particularly intense, with some estimates putting it at around 35%, and the recovery has been slow and complex, making the "zero option" much more evident.

The current situation is such that the Cuban economy and society have been immersed in a crisis scenario and low growth since the adoption of the so-called Tarea Ordenamiento in 2021, which has caused dramatic changes, such as monetary disorder and inflation. Therefore, although the decline in GDP will be smaller this time than during the Special Period, its impact on a scenario of greater weakness will be much more pronounced, and its effects will be very negative.

The indebtedness of the economy

Cuba's external debt, the main barrier to accessing financing in global markets, was concentrated at the beginning of the Special Period in the countries of the CAME, particularly in the USSR, nations with which the regime traded regularly and without restrictions. Although the debt was substantial, there were no pressures for compliance, except for formal ones. Initially, based on this data, there were no issues in moving towards increasing indebtedness with other Western countries with which trade was opened.

In 2026, Cuba's external debt, the scale of which remains largely unknown despite the debt relief measures taken in 2014 and 2015, along with repeated failures to meet international commitments, places the Cuban economy in a challenging position for accessing financial markets.

International geopolitics

The collapse of real socialism starting in 1990 led to the abrupt end of the Cold War, leaving behind one of the darkest periods in humanity since the Second World War. The east-west axis was replaced by the north-south axis. The Cuban communist regime, which had been a loyal acolyte of the former thanks to Soviet sponsorship, discovered how easy it was to shift to the latter, even though this required finding new external financial resources.

Years later, the regime strengthened its collaboration with Venezuela and quickly adapted its structures to the new scenario of globalization, gaining more advantages than losses, despite the enduring argument of the embargo/blockade. Now, it is much more challenging to find support that is capable of navigating a more complex and different international environment.

Time elapsed

Although it may seem trivial, when the Berlin Wall fell, the Castro brothers were celebrating something akin to the 30th anniversary of their political and economic takeover in Cuba. Three decades that have nothing to do with the 67 years that in 2026 will mark the longest dictatorship in the history of the West.

With just three decades in power, the Castros understood that to survive they had no choice but to quickly adapt to the new times. Although they grudgingly weathered the “maleconazo,” they had no choice but to accept the dollar as a means of payment and the arrival of mass tourism, which had until then been banned on the Island.

These were changes that, viewed in perspective, had a political cost for the two communist leaders, who were then in their 60s. It was evident that their goal was to survive at any price.

The current communist leaders should take a good look at themselves. Perhaps they lack the necessary historical perspective after so much time.