Gerardo Hernández Nordelo, national coordinator of the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution (CDR) and one of the so-called "Five Heroes" of the Cuban regime, stated that if the United States invaded Cuba, it would activate a guerrilla war "the day after" the occupation, comparing the scenario to Vietnam. The Cuban political analyst and journalist Camilo Loret de Mola disassembles that threat point by point and labels it a baseless fantasy.
Hernández openly acknowledged that Cuba has no chance of winning a direct confrontation with the United States military or of preventing them from taking and occupying the country. His argument is that the "surprise" would come afterward. "The day after, our clandestine units will be activated to carry out sabotage, seeking to indirectly confront the occupiers until they are convinced that they must leave this country because they will be defeated in that long-term, everyday battle, day by day."
Loret de Mola, interviewed by Tania Costa, does not hide his skepticism: "This is indeed triggering a fetish for the Trump Administration."
The analyst notes that the comparison with Vietnam is invalid in geopolitical and logistical terms. "Vietnam had a direct corridor, a direct connection to China through the border, where a strong Soviet Union at that time provided all possible weaponry and supplies to confront that war. First, there is no Soviet Union anymore, nor any substitute," he asserts.
He also added that Cuba, unlike Vietnam, is an island without land borders, equipped with outdated Soviet-era weaponry and lacking any external sponsor willing to take on the geopolitical cost of financing a guerrilla against Washington in 2026.
Loret de Mola asks directly: "Do you believe that in the current geopolitical landscape, China will risk becoming the sponsor or financier of these individual guerrillas, or will Russia take that risk?"
The analyst's most compelling argument points to the social base of that supposed resistance. "Who are you counting on? The same Cuban who wakes up every day without electricity, without food, with garbage at the front door? Does that man really care to fight for you?" questions Loret de Mola.
To illustrate this, she quotes a Cuban resident on the island with whom she is in contact, who responded to that question: "Look, call my neighbor, the mother of the twins, because when they knock on her door and tell her that she has to fight for Díaz-Canel, the ones she’s going to kill are them. Because we're in a situation where all we want is for them to leave."
The analyst concludes with irony: "It seems that Mr. Gerardo did not speak with the mother of the twins."
Hernández's statements come in the context of the campaign "My Signature for the Homeland", launched on April 19 during the event for the 65th anniversary of Playa Girón, through which the regime pressures citizens to sign lists at workplaces and schools, demanding their commitment to defend the revolution against a possible U.S. military intervention.
Loret de Mola describes the reality of those signatures without ambiguity. "There are people signing out of fear of losing their jobs, because they don't care, or because they are fans of the revolution. But there are people signing. Incredible."
The analyst estimates that Hernández's speech aims to intimidate the Trump administration by invoking the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, but warns that Cuba is not comparable to those scenarios due to its lack of porous borders and guaranteed external supply.
Loret de Mola estimates that 90% of the participants in the do not believe the narrative they are being sold, and adds a final reflection that summarizes the fragility of the entire threat. "And if they believed it, what if they consider that possibility? They have no way to defend it. They have no way to sustain it."
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