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The government of Donald Trump appears to be recalibrating its strategy on mass deportations, shifting away from the aggressive and high-profile tactics that characterized the early months of his second term to adopt a more discreet approach to immigration, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
The change in style coincides with the arrival of the new Secretary of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin, who replaced Kristi Noem following her dismissal on March 5. Unlike Noem, who made her first official trip to New York to personally participate in arrests alongside the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Mullin traveled to North Carolina to oversee recovery efforts following a hurricane.
"We continue to enforce immigration laws. We continue to deport undocumented individuals who should not be here. We continue to go after the worst of the worst, but we are doing it in a more discreet manner," Mullin stated in an interview with CNBC on April 16.
The images of the then commander of the Border Patrol, Greg Bovino, facing off against protesters are now behind us. Bovino retired at the end of March after 30 years of service, amid controversies surrounding operations in Minneapolis where two American citizens, Renée Good and Alex Pretti, were killed by federal agents under his command.
ICE detentions have decreased in recent months: the number of people in immigration custody dropped from a peak of approximately 72,000 in January to about 58,000 this week, according to data obtained by The Associated Press.
However, the government insists that it has not backtracked on its goals. ICE plans to expel 1 million people during this fiscal year and the next, compared to approximately 442,000 expulsions the previous year. The MAGA movement has pressured to maintain that target.
To support that ambition, the government has acquired 11 warehouses across the country with the goal of having the capacity for 100,000 detainees simultaneously, more than double the daily average of the previous year. Congress allocated over $170 billion to the Department of Homeland Security for the immigration agenda.
"They are working to truly build a colossal system," stated Doris Meissner, former director of the Immigration and Naturalization Service and current senior researcher at the Migration Policy Institute.
Meanwhile, the government is advancing in a quieter strategy to broaden the pool of deportable individuals. Approval of residency for Cubans plummeted by 99.8%, from over 10,000 monthly to just 15 in January, according to the Cato Institute. Additionally, the Supreme Court is reviewing whether the government can revoke Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of people from 17 countries, a case that could impact 1.3 million migrants.
ICE has also signed over 1,200 agreements with local jurisdictions allowing state and municipal police to carry out immigration control tasks, enabling operations without the public spectacle of raids. In this context, the acting director of ICE, Todd Lyons, announced his resignation in April amid controversies over deaths in custody.
The White House spokesperson, Abigail Jackson, insisted that there has been no change in strategy: "President Trump's top priority has always been the deportation of undocumented immigrants with criminal records who pose a threat to American communities."
Mark Krikorian, president of the Center for Immigration Studies, summarized the ambiguity of the moment: "They have clearly distanced themselves from the old bovine tactics. But it's unclear if this means they are truly moving away from the immigration issue."
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