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The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) reported today that precipitation in the western region of the country will be below the norm during May, while in the central and eastern regions, the totals will remain close to the historical average.
The forecast comes just at the beginning of the rainy season, which in Cuba extends from May to October and accounts for approximately 70% to 75% of the total annual rainfall in the archipelago.
According to INSMET, "the rainy season begins in May in most of the archipelago" and "it is common for the total rainfall to increase significantly compared to the previous months, sometimes reaching very high levels."
Precipitation depends, according to the institution, "on the influence of migratory systems in the tropical zone, such as waves and tropical lows, and their interaction with systems at mid-latitudes."
Regarding the global climate context, INSMET noted that "the conditions typical of the La Niña event, which was weak during April, will transition to neutral conditions in May."
Even more concerning is the outlook for the coming months: "most models are indicating an increased likelihood that an El Niño event will begin to develop in July and persist until the end of this year," the agency warned, adding that "the magnitude of the event is still uncertain, but some forecasts suggest it could become strong."
This rainfall deficit in the west occurs against a backdrop of serious water crisis accumulated in Cuba: 2025 was the fifth driest year since 1901, with only 1,114 mm of precipitation, which is equivalent to 83% of the historical average.
The west was the region most affected that year, with rainfall reaching only 74% of the historical average, with Pinar del Río, Artemisa, and Havana being the most impacted provinces.
By the end of 2025, Cuban reservoirs held 5,868 hm³, which is 64% of their total capacity, and over 3.1 million people —almost 30% of the population— were experiencing a total or partial lack of water supply.
The situation worsens because 87% of the water supply system relies on the national electrical grid, which is experiencing a severe crisis, thereby amplifying the effects of any rainfall deficits on the population.
Furthermore, April 2026 ended with 84% of the national territory affected by a rainfall deficit, with Pinar del Río, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Ávila, and Camagüey being the most affected provinces.
In parallel, INSMET also published today its forecast for the 2026 hurricane season, which anticipates a low level of activity in the North Atlantic, with 11 tropical cyclones, five hurricanes, and two of significant intensity.
The temperatures in May will be above normal across the entire national territory, according to the Climate Center of INSMET, which adds additional pressure to the demand for water in an already critical context for western Cuba.
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