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The Climate Center (CENCLIM) of the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba forecasts that May 2026 will be a very warm month across the country, with both maximum and minimum temperatures exceeding historical averages in all three regions: western, central, and eastern.
The projections were presented at the XV National Forum on Climate Perspectives, with participation from provincial meteorological centers, and they are part of a trend of extreme heat that Cuba has experienced in recent years.
The master's degree holder in Science, Idelmis González García, head of CENCLIM, detailed that precipitation levels will be below the monthly norm in the western region, while in the central and eastern parts of the country, they will remain close to usual values.
May marks the beginning of the rainy season in Cuba, which lasts until October and accounts for 74% of the country's total annual rainfall.
This period does not begin simultaneously across the entire territory: it usually starts in the eastern region and gradually extends westward.
The rainiest months of the year are May, June —the month with the highest annual total—, September, and October.
A determining factor in the climate outlook is the high likelihood of a new El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event developing from July in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the possibility of lasting until the end of the year.
Most of the models consulted by CENCLIM indicate that the onset will be in July, although the Cuban model predicts that the phenomenon will not begin until November.
The exact magnitude of the phenomenon is still uncertain: some international forecasts suggest it could be very intense, while others provide more moderate estimates.
The NOAA estimates a 61% chance that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026 and persist at least until December, according to its April forecast.
If consolidated, the phenomenon would alter the behavior of the main meteorological variables in Cuba, including the hurricane season, by acting as a limiting factor for the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
González García warned: "If what has been proposed occurs, it would entail a change in the impact on the behavior of the main meteorological variables, particularly during the hurricane season."
The forecast for May is set against an unprecedented heat wave on the island. In April 2024, Cuba broke the 40°C barrier for the first time, with a record temperature of 40.1°C recorded in Jucarito, Granma province.
In May 2025, the Casablanca station in Havana recorded a temperature of 38.0°C, a historic record for that month in the Cuban capital.
For the summer of 2026, INSMET predicts that maximum temperatures will be above the historical average throughout the entire summer, with nights providing little thermal relief.
Both INSMET and Colorado State University forecast that the 2026 hurricane season will see slightly below-average activity: 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes of category three or higher.
CENCLIM specified that the reliability of forecasts increases after the month of April, meaning that subsequent updates will provide greater accuracy, and that the agency maintains continuous monitoring of the potential development of the ENOS event.
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