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80.1% of Cubans support the island transitioning to a capitalist model of liberal democracy and market economy, according to the final results of a public opinion survey that concluded on May 1 with 41,658 responses, the largest collective effort to measure Cuban public opinion to date.
The survey was launched on April 24 by a coalition of over 20 independent Cuban digital media outlets, including El Toque, CiberCuba, El Estornudo and Rialta, via the website encuestascuba.net.
58% of the participants responded from Cuba —24,211 people— while the remaining 42% responded from abroad, identified through anonymous geolocation.
The data on the political model is compelling: combining those who support the liberal market democracy (80.1%) and those who prefer a mixed system (10.6%), over 91% endorse some form of profound structural change. Only 0.2% believe that socialism is the appropriate model and should be maintained as it is.
The rejection of the current system extends to all measured dimensions. 99% of respondents expressed support for eliminating the Communist Party as the sole party, 94% declared themselves "very dissatisfied" with the government, and 95% indicated that citizens have no influence over the regime's decisions.
Miguel Díaz-Canel received an average rating of 1.11 out of five, with 93.7% of respondents giving him the lowest score. When asked about Cuban government figures with favorable performance, the most common response was: "None of them are useful."
Among the main problems in Cuba identified by respondents are the lack of civil and political freedoms (82.2%), government inefficiency and stagnation (74.8%), and the economic crisis and scarcity of basic goods (52.7%).
A particularly significant piece of information redefines the debate on U.S. sanctions: only 4.7% identify the embargo as the main problem facing the country, while 46.6% support it as a mechanism for democratic change.
Among the international figures viewed positively, respondents most frequently mentioned María Corina Machado, Javier Milei, and Nayib Bukele. Among the leaders of the Cuban opposition, they highlighted Amelia Calzadilla and Eliecer Ávila.
The regime responded with two simultaneous actions: blocked access to the survey from the island during the collection period and published an article on April 28 in the official newspaper Juventud Rebelde titled "The Survey, AI, and Manipulation," which accused the participating media of being "funded by the State Department" and of using algorithms in a manipulative manner.
The results of this survey are not an isolated phenomenon. The independent polling agency CubaData documented in May 2024 that only 3% of Cubans considered themselves firmly socialist and that 85.9% desired a shift towards a more open model, figures that the 2026 consultation confirms and expands with an unprecedented sample.
The site encuestascuba.net announced that the complete final report will be published soon: "The survey on political and social perspectives in Cuba has closed. Aggregated and anonymous results. We will publish the report soon."
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