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80.1% of Cubans support the island's transition towards a capitalist model of liberal democracy and market economy, according to the final results of a public opinion poll that concluded on May 1st with 41,658 responses, the largest collective effort to measure Cuban public opinion to date.
The survey was launched on April 24 by a coalition of over 20 independent Cuban digital media outlets, including El Toque, CiberCuba, El Estornudo and Rialta, through the site encuestascuba.net.
58% of the participants responded from Cuba —24,211 people— while the remaining 42% responded from abroad, identified through anonymous geolocation.
The data on the political model is striking: when adding those who support the liberal market democracy (80.1%) and those who prefer a mixed system (10.6%), more than 91% support some form of deep structural change. Only 0.2% believe that socialism is the appropriate model and should be maintained as it is.
The rejection of the current system extends to all measured dimensions. 99% of respondents expressed support for eliminating the Communist Party as the sole party, 94% expressed being "very dissatisfied" with the government, and 95% indicated that citizens have no influence on the regime's decisions.
Miguel Díaz-Canel received an average rating of 1.11 out of five, with 93.7% of respondents giving him the lowest score. When asked about Cuban government figures with favorable performance, the most common response was: "None are of any use."
Among the main problems in Cuba identified by respondents are the lack of civil and political liberties (82.2%), governmental inefficiency and stagnation (74.8%), and the economic crisis and shortage of basic goods (52.7%).
A particularly significant fact redefines the debate on U.S. sanctions: only 4.7% identify the embargo as the main problem in the country, while 46.6% support it as a mechanism for democratic change.
Among the internationally regarded figures, respondents most frequently mentioned María Corina Machado, Javier Milei, and Nayib Bukele. Among the leaders of the Cuban opposition, Amelia Calzadilla and Eliecer Ávila stood out.
The regime responded with two simultaneous actions: blocked access to the survey from the island during the data collection period and published an article on April 28 in the official newspaper Juventud Rebelde titled "The Survey, AI, and Manipulation," which accused the participating media of being "funded by the State Department" and of using algorithms in a manipulative way.
The results of this survey are not an isolated phenomenon. The independent polling firm CubaData already documented in May 2024 that only 3% of Cubans firmly identified as socialist and that 85.9% wanted a shift towards a more open model, figures that the 2026 survey confirms and expands upon with an unprecedented sample size.
The website encuestascuba.net announced that the complete final report will be published soon: "The survey on political and social perspectives in Cuba has closed. Aggregated and anonymous results. We will be publishing the report soon."
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