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The political scientist Julio Shiling and the former Cuban intelligence officer José Cohen analyzed on Tuesday in the program "La Noche" of NTN24 the escalating pressure of the Trump administration against the Cuban regime, and they agreed that the popular demand within the island has surpassed any material claims, pointing out that what the Cuban people are demanding is a change in the system.
The debate took place on a day full of signals. Donald Trump referred to Cuba as a "failed nation" both on Truth Social and in front of the press at the White House. "Cuba is asking for help and we are going to talk," he wrote. Hours later, he was more direct: "They are not doing well. Cuba is not doing well. It is a failed nation and we will talk about Cuba at the appropriate time."
On the same day, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed before Congress, during a hearing led by Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart, that the Cuban regime poses a direct threat to the national security of the United States. Hegseth noted that Russian warships, including the submarine Kazán, have repeatedly utilized Cuban ports, and that "it is also likely that the Chinese are there."
In the program, and from Havana, independent journalist Yoani Sánchez reported the desperation of the population. "Blackouts in Havana are lasting 12, 14, 16 hours or more. In reality, our lives are spent between a few hours of electricity and the rest in darkness," she described. On Monday night, neighbors from the Luyanó neighborhood staged a pot-banging protest against the outages. Sánchez interpreted these protests as something deeper: "People feel trapped in a dysfunctional system, completely exhausted, that is unreformable."
Shiling was emphatic: "It's no longer about seeking improvement through international humanitarian assistance or material goods. It's clearly a change of system; they need to go, and they should go along with the system." The political scientist added that Trump is coming to the realization that a negotiated exit with the regime is not possible, and that patterns of military activity indicate an operation is underway.
According to data from Flightradar24, the U.S. Navy and Air Force have carried out at least 25 reconnaissance flights near Cuba since February 4, using drones and manned aircraft, replicating patterns previously seen in operations in Venezuela and Iran.
Cohen identified four signal intelligence bases allegedly operated by China on the island: Bejucal, El Salado in Santiago de Cuba, Calabazar, and El Oajay. "China is the option that Cuba has found to continue developing hostile work against the United States," he stated. A former Cuban agent confirmed from exile that the island has not received military equipment since 1982, lacks air defense, and that Russia has gone from sending eight fuel ships per month to only three so far in 2026.
In the political realm, Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar responded to Trump's message on X: "Cubans on the island are waiting. Cubans in Miami are waiting. We hope that you will give the order and it will happen with Marco Rubio paving the way." Senator Rick Scott also confirmed his support for Trump's decisions, demanding the release of all political prisoners and free elections.
On May 7, the State Department sanctioned GAESA and Moa Nickel S.A., accusing the military conglomerate of controlling approximately 20 billion dollars in illicit assets, with a deadline of June 5 for foreign companies to sever their ties under threat of secondary sanctions.
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