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National security analyst Jason Ian Poblete recalled this Friday that the visit of the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, to Havana on Thursday is not an unprecedented event, and drew a direct parallel with the rapprochement process from the Obama era.
In an analysis published on X, Poblete pointed out that "this is not the first CIA director to visit Cuba" and that these visits are reminiscent of the rapprochement process during the Obama era, "although under new political and economic circumstances."
The most direct precedent is that of John Brennan, CIA director from 2013 to 2017, who secretly traveled to Havana in 2015 and met with Colonel Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro and supervisor of Cuban intelligence agencies.
That meeting, held in a discreet government guesthouse in Cuba, was part of the secret diplomatic channel that resulted in the historic announcement on December 17, 2014, and the broader opening of relations between Washington and Havana.
According to Poblete, "the intelligence channel has been a recurring instrument in the limited set of diplomatic tools of the U.S.-Cuba relationship when the Foreign Ministry channel cannot convey the message."
However, the analyst did identify a "genuinely unusual" element in Ratcliffe's visit: the public photography.
"The directors of the CIA typically do not pose for the camera on trips of this nature," Poblete wrote, noting that the Agency itself published images on its social media and that the CIA revealed photos of the secret meeting in Havana, which is unprecedented for such missions.
This was accompanied by a stop at the U.S. Embassy in Havana, where Ratcliffe posed with the chargé d'affaires Mike Hammer in front of the diplomatic building.
For Poblete, this public communication strategy "represents a deviation from how these channels have historically been managed."
The analyst was straightforward in questioning the logic behind the decision: "I’m not sure what is intended to be achieved with the messaging strategy; the substantive work doesn’t require it, and for some issues, it is counterproductive."
Ratcliffe's visit included meetings with Brigadier General Ramón Romero Curbelo, head of the Intelligence Directorate of MININT, General Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, Minister of the Interior, and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nicknamed "El Cangrejo" and grandson of Raúl Castro.
Ratcliffe brought a message from President Trump to Cuba: The U.S. is willing to engage on economic and security issues, but only if the regime makes "fundamental changes" and ceases to be a haven for Washington's adversaries in the hemisphere.
Brennan's background from 2015 does not bode well for easy outcomes: the Cubans never fulfilled the agreements made at that time, including the placement of a liaison officer in Washington, which led Ben Rhodes, Obama’s national security advisor, to exclaim, "Who would have thought that the CIA would be the agency the Cubans would trust!"
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