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The administration of Donald Trump is reportedly considering keeping open the option of applying a strategy in Cuba similar to the one used against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, as revealed in a comprehensive report by the New York Times on the increase of U.S. pressure on Havana.
The newspaper reports that high-ranking U.S. officials are discussing the possibility of repeating parts of the so-called "Venezuela playbook" on the island, referring to the military and judicial operation that resulted in the capture of Maduro in Caracas in early 2026.
Although the newspaper clarifies that there are no signs of imminent action against Cuba, it maintains that certain sectors within the White House want to keep that option on the table.
The publication arrives amidst increasing tensions between Washington and Havana, characterized by new sanctions, energy pressure, military surveillance flights around the island, and the recent visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Cuba.
According to the report, U.S. officials have privately discussed a potential increase of military forces in the region, while military and intelligence agencies ramp up their monitoring operations over Cuban territory.
The most delicate element would be the potential federal charges against Raúl Castro, currently 94 years old. According to the NYT, federal prosecutors in Miami are working on a case that could include charges related to drug trafficking or the shooting down in 1996 of the Brothers to the Rescue planes, an incident that resulted in four deaths.
The yet-to-be-officially-announced accusation would carry significant political and symbolic weight. The newspaper asserts that within the U.S. government, there is a belief that judicial action against the historical leader of the Cuban regime would intensify internal pressure on the leadership in Havana.
Experts consulted by the newspaper believe, however, that the threat of a Venezuelan-style operation may serve more as a psychological and political tool than as an immediate military plan.
The goal is to create pressure and force the Cuban government to make concessions, stated NYT the professor William LeoGrande, a specialist in Cuba-U.S. relations, who warned that the Cuban regime has historically “not been good at retreating under threats.”
Another of the cited analysts, Frank Mora, a former Pentagon official and former ambassador to the OAS, deemed a direct military action against Raúl Castro unlikely due to the international political cost that would come with acting against an elderly and ill leader.
Nonetheless, the report emphasizes that Trump's pressure strategy towards Cuba appears to be entering a new phase, much more aggressive and focused on accelerating political changes within the island.
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