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The Cuban government is trying to simultaneously sustain two opposing strategies: maintaining a confrontational rhetoric against the United States while developing discreet contacts with Washington to avoid a greater collapse of the island.
That is the main conclusion of the Cuban historian and essayist Rafael Rojas in an analysis published in El País, where he describes the delicate political and economic moment Cuba is experiencing under the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
To resist the empire and to negotiate with the empire. The Government of Cuba alternates between these two simultaneous agendas at a time of uncertainty and unpredictability, where the future of the island is at stake between collapse and transition," Rojas wrote.
Havana is facing a crisis of historic proportions characterized by massive blackouts, fuel shortages, economic decline, and increasing social discontent. According to Rojas, this situation has forced the regime to explore channels of understanding with the administration of Donald Trump while not publicly abandoning its revolutionary rhetoric.
Rojas argues that the crisis has a structural dimension, related to the exhaustion of the Cuban economic model, and a temporary aspect, exacerbated by the energy collapse following the interruption of oil supplies from Venezuela and Mexico.
The Cuban economy has experienced several years of contraction, while tourism has plummeted by more than 50% in the last six years, and mass emigration has drastically reduced the island's population. This is compounded by increasingly frequent protests over blackouts and the deterioration of living conditions.
In this context, secret diplomacy has taken center stage. Rojas mentions the ongoing contacts between delegations from both governments in meetings held in the Caribbean and in Havana, focused on migration cooperation, regional security, and stability in the Caribbean.
It was also revealed recently that the director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, visited Havana to meet with high-ranking Cuban officials. At the same time, Washington offered 100 million dollars in humanitarian aid intended for fuel, food, and medicine, a proposal that the Cuban government expressed willingness to consider.
However, the regime insists on setting boundaries. The Deputy Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that the Cuban political system "is non-negotiable," while Díaz-Canel warned that "if the red lines are crossed, there will be no negotiation."
For the historian, the contradiction reflects the fragility of the current moment: a government that needs to relieve economic and energy pressure, but fears that any opening could jeopardize the political control of the system.
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