The Trump administration is increasingly seriously considering the possibility of taking military actions against Cuba, marking a significant escalation from the economic and diplomatic pressure strategy that had prevailed in the previous months, as revealed by the magazine Politico in an article by its foreign affairs correspondent Nahal Toosi.
A U.S. official and a person familiar with the internal discussions confirmed to Politico that Trump and his advisers have grown increasingly frustrated with the failure of the pressure campaign— which includes a fuel blockade— to get the Cuban regime to agree to significant economic and political reforms.
"The mood has definitely changed," said the source familiar with the discussions.
"The initial idea about Cuba was that the leadership was weak and that a stronger application of sanctions, essentially a blockade of oil, along with the clear military victories of the U.S. in Venezuela and Iran, would scare the Cubans into reaching an agreement. Now Iran has become more complicated, and the Cubans are proving to be much tougher than previously thought. So now military action is on the table in a way that it wasn't before," he added.
The U.S. Southern Command has "called for a planning series" in recent weeks, meaning it has begun to develop plans for potential military action, according to both sources.
The options range from a targeted airstrike intended to pressure the regime to a ground invasion aimed at overthrowing it.
A White House official clarified that "it is the Pentagon's job to prepare to give the commander-in-chief maximum options," but emphasized that "this does not mean the president has made a decision."
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security advisor, hinted in an interview with Fox News that time is running out: "We will give them a chance. But I don't think it will happen. I don't believe we can change the trajectory of Cuba while these people are in charge."
This turn comes amid a series of escalating signals.
This weekend, Axios reported that Cuba acquired hundreds of military drones with support from Russia and Iran, and discussed ways to use them in the event of hostilities erupting.
Many national security analysts interpreted that report as a leak intended to justify a possible U.S. attack.
This is joined by the visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Havana last Thursday —the highest level direct contact between the two countries on Cuban soil since 2016—, where he conveyed that Cuba "can no longer serve as a platform for adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere"; and the news that the Department of Justice is preparing a criminal indictment against Raúl Castro, 94 years old, for the shooting down of Brothers to the Rescue planes in 1996.
The Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel responded this Monday on X that a U.S. military aggression "would provoke a bloodbath with incalculable consequences."
Sources from Político rule out the involvement of Cuban exiles in any mission: "They have determined that exiles have no role here except as cheerleaders and nuisances. This will not be Bay of Pigs 2.0."
An American official harshly described the paralysis of the regime: "The system is so calcified and based on consensus. They live in an alternate reality, and they literally don't care about the Cuban people at all."
The Senate rejected on April 29 by a vote of 51 to 47 a Democratic initiative to limit Trump's ability to order military action against Cuba without congressional authorization, leaving the president with broad leeway under the War Powers Act.
Brian Latell, former senior CIA official specializing in Cuba, warned about the dangers of underestimating the regime's resilience: "They might attempt a rather small operation, but if that's what they're thinking, they may be overestimating again what they could achieve."
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