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The Trump administration is increasingly seriously considering the possibility of taking military action against Cuba, marking a significant escalation from the strategy of economic and diplomatic pressure that had prevailed in the preceding months, according to revealed by the magazine Politico in an article by its foreign affairs correspondent Nahal Toosi.
An American official and a person familiar with the internal discussions confirmed to Politico that Trump and his advisors have grown frustrated with the failure of the pressure campaign — which includes a fuel blockade — to persuade the Cuban regime to adopt meaningful economic and political reforms.
"The mood has definitely changed," said the source familiar with the discussions.
"The initial idea about Cuba was that the leadership was weak and that a combination of increased sanctions, effectively a blockade of oil, along with the clear military victories of the U.S. in Venezuela and Iran, would scare the Cubans into reaching an agreement. Now Iran has become complicated, and the Cubans are proving to be much tougher than was thought. So now military action is on the table in a way that it wasn't before," he added.
The U.S. Southern Command has "called for a planning series" in recent weeks, meaning it has started to develop plans for possible military action, according to both sources.
The options range from a targeted airstrike aimed at pressuring the regime to a ground invasion to overthrow it.
A White House official clarified that "it is the Pentagon's job to make preparations to give the commander in chief the maximum optionality," but emphasized that "it does not mean the president has made a decision."
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security advisor, hinted in an interview with Fox News that time is running out: "We will give them a chance. But I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think we can change the course of Cuba while these people are in charge."
This shift occurs amidst a series of signs of escalation.
This weekend, Axios reported that Cuba acquired hundreds of military drones with support from Russia and Iran, and discussed ways to use them if hostilities break out.
Many national security analysts interpreted that report as a leak intended to justify a potential U.S. attack.
Additionally, there is the visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Havana last Thursday —the highest-level direct contact between the two countries on Cuban soil since 2016— where he conveyed that Cuba "can no longer serve as a platform for adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere"; and the news that the Department of Justice is preparing a criminal indictment against Raúl Castro, 94 years old, for the downing of planes from Brothers to the Rescue in 1996.
The Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel responded this Monday on X that an American military aggression "would provoke a bloodbath with incalculable consequences."
Sources from Político dismiss the involvement of Cuban exiles in any mission: "They have determined that exiles have no role here except as cheerleaders and busybodies. This will not be Bay of Pigs 2.0."
An American official harshly described the regime's paralysis: "The system is so calcified and consensus-based. They live in another reality, and they literally don’t care at all about the Cuban people."
On April 29, the Senate rejected a Democratic initiative by a vote of 51 to 47, aimed at limiting Trump’s ability to order military action against Cuba without Congressional authorization, leaving the president with considerable latitude under the War Powers Act.
Brian Latell, a former high-ranking CIA official specializing in Cuba, warned about the risks of underestimating the regime's resilience: "They might attempt a fairly small operation, but if that's what they're considering, they may be overestimating once again what they could achieve."
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