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John Bolton, former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump, predicted this Tuesday that the Cuban regime could collapse "in a matter of months," during an interview on the program Hora América of Radio Exterior de España while making a stop in Madrid.
Bolton argued that Cuba is experiencing its weakest moment in decades, struck by an unprecedented energy crisis, accelerated economic decline, and the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January of this year.
"The Cuban government has announced that it is essentially out of oil. There are blackouts throughout the country. If young Cubans are willing to express their discontent, the collapse could happen quite quickly," said the former official.
The former advisor insisted on drawing a distinction between Havana and other regimes: "Cuba is not Venezuela. It is not Iran. It is not Afghanistan," emphasizing that the island is "90 miles from Florida" and that its historical significance in U.S. foreign policy makes it a unique case.
"I believe we could be close to the collapse of the regime," Bolton ventured, describing it as "unacceptable" for "a vestige of the Castro regime, like Raúl Castro's grandson," to remain in power.
The former advisor attributed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio the role of "the person most focused on ending the Castro regime," linking that determination to his Cuban heritage and the political influence of the exile community in Florida.
The statements come at a time of heightened tension between Washington and Havana.
According to Politico this Monday, the Trump administration is considering military options against Cuba, ranging from targeted airstrikes to a land invasion, following the failure of economic pressure to force reforms. Southern Command has called for planning meetings regarding this matter.
Additionally, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, visited Havana last Wednesday —the highest-level direct contact since 2016— and the Department of Justice is preparing criminal charges against Raúl Castro for the downing of aircraft from Brothers to the Rescue in 1996.
The energy crisis described by Bolton is real and documented: the Cuban Minister of Energy admitted this month that the country is "out of fuel" to produce electricity, with generation deficits exceeding 1,955 MW during peak hours and blackouts lasting up to 24 hours daily in several provinces.
Bolton also warned about the risk of Trump repeating with Cuba the mistake he believes was made in Venezuela.
In April, the former advisor wrote that "Havana will be more than willing to pacify Trump in the short term to obtain any help or support it can from Washington," a warning that was reiterated publicly weeks ago.
Díaz-Canel responded on social media this Monday that a U.S. military aggression "would result in a bloodbath of incalculable consequences," while Rubio stated on Fox News: "I don't think we can change the course of Cuba while these people are in charge."
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