The Cuban opponent Antonio Rodiles issued a strong warning in an interview with journalist Tania Costa for CiberCuba. According to what he stated live this Monday, in his opinion, the Cuban exile community and the opposition do not have their own levers to pressure the regime in Havana and almost completely depend on the will of U.S. President Donald Trump.
"If tomorrow, for some reason, Trump wakes up and says, 'You know what, due to this situation and that situation, I’m not going to take any actions in Cuba, it’s all over. What do we have then?'” posed Rodiles, coordinator of the opposition project Estado de Sats.
The question summarizes what Rodiles considers the main strategic problem of the Cuban opposition movement, which he believes is the absence of its own platforms. "All of this is happening, Tania (Costa), because we don’t have our own platforms. There are no platforms; they don't have them. People are watching how they maneuver," he stated.
Rodiles directed a blunt critique at the Cuban-American congress members, whom he described as actors maneuvering with excessive caution to avoid upsetting the Trump Administration.
"I found it amusing, in quotes, when Trump said that no Republican had told him anything. Immediately, they (the Republican congressmen from Florida) came out to say that yes, they had told him, but with great caution," he noted.
The opposition figure urged to move away from the euphoria regarding what might happen in Cuba and to adopt political realism. "In the political world, there must also be a realism that means I recognize I have elements 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. I do not have 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10," he explained. For Rodiles, the urgent debate that is not taking place is how to build those levers, rather than how to celebrate external signals.
The controversial opposition figure drew a parallel with Venezuela to illustrate the risk of relying on an external actor whose priorities can change without notice. He recalled that Trump once praised Delcy Rodríguez, a prominent figure of chavismo who took on the role of interim president after the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, causing confusion among Venezuelan opposition members.
"Then it's like a discomfort that has to do with the fact that the Venezuelans also don't have any cards," he said.
This analysis comes at a time of maximum pressure from Washington towards Havana. Trump signed an executive order on May 1 that expands sanctions against Cuba in the energy, defense, mining, and finance sectors, and includes secondary sanctions on foreign banks. Despite these measures, Rodiles insists that the opposition has not built its own agenda.
When asked if he would like to be in Cuba right now, Rodiles explained that he left the island for personal reasons and that from abroad, he can see dynamics that he didn't perceive from within.
"Being on the island is like being bound hand and foot, living under the regime's scrutiny, and I wouldn't have the voice I have now," he said.
He also revealed that he lived through a smear campaign in exile, and that the Cuban State Security itself stated that it did not need to take action against him. "They said, no, we're not going to take him down because he is being dealt with from the outside," he affirmed.
Regarding whether small and medium-sized private enterprises in Cuba are linked to GAESA, the military-business conglomerate of the regime, Rodiles responded with nuances.
"Cuba is not a black-and-white scenario. There are indeed individuals who are completely linked to power; they are part of the power structure. In fact, power has used them. But not everyone."
Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar publicly supported Trump and Rubio's strategy towards Cuba on May 6, stating that there is "a real hope for a free Cuba."
Rodiles, however, warns that hope without our own cards is insufficient. "We have cards or we don't have cards. If we don't have cards, we need to discuss how we can get them, and that's what is not being done."
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