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John Bolton, former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump, predicted this Tuesday that the Cuban regime could collapse "in a matter of months", during an interview given to the program 'Hora América' on Radio Exterior de España while on a stopover in Madrid.
Bolton argued that Cuba is experiencing its weakest moment in decades, struck by an unprecedented energy crisis, accelerated economic decline, and the loss of Venezuelan oil supply following the fall of Nicolás Maduro.
"The Cuban government has announced that it has essentially run out of oil. Blackouts are occurring throughout the country. If young Cubans are willing to express their discontent, the collapse could happen quite rapidly," stated the former official.
The former advisor insisted on differentiating the Cuban case from other regimes: «Cuba is not Venezuela. It is not Iran. It is not Afghanistan.», emphasizing that the island is «90 miles from Florida» and holds a unique historical significance in U.S. foreign policy.
He called it "unacceptable" that "a vestige of the Castro regime, such as Raúl Castro's grandson," remains in power, referring to Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, who allegedly participated in the recent discussions with Washington.
The energy crisis described by Bolton is documented by the regime itself: the Cuban Minister of Energy admitted in May that the country is "without fuel" to produce electricity, with generation deficits exceeding 1,955 MW during peak hours and blackouts of up to 24 hours a day in several provinces.
Cuba receives only one fuel ship of the eight it needs each month, a situation that worsened after a shipment of Russian crude ran out.
Bolton's statements come at a time of heightened tension between Washington and Havana. As revealed by Politico this Monday, the Trump administration is considering military options against Cuba, ranging from targeted airstrikes to a ground invasion, and Southern Command has called for planning meetings on this matter.
On May 14, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, visited Havana in the highest-level direct contact between the two governments since 2016, meeting with officials from MININT and with Raúl Castro's grandson.
At the same time, the Department of Justice is preparing criminal charges against Raúl Castro for the downing of planes from Brothers to the Rescue in 1996, with a presentation scheduled for this Wednesday, May 20.
Bolton attributed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio the role of "the most focused person on ending the Castro regime," linking that determination to his Cuban heritage and the political influence of the exile community in Florida.
In April, Bolton had already warned that Trump could repeat with Cuba the "error" of Venezuela, accepting superficial gestures without demanding structural changes from the regime.
Díaz-Canel responded on social media this Tuesday that a U.S. military aggression "would provoke a bloodbath of incalculable consequences," while Trump posted on Truth Social: "Cuba asks for help, and we are going to talk!" leaving the door open for a diplomatic negotiation.
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