The Cuban opposition figure Antonio Rodiles warned that the population on the island is not "living" but "surviving," and that this extreme precariousness has left a deep mark on Cuban society that any transition process will have to confront seriously.
"It is a community that has been very impacted; there are millions of people who have suffered greatly," Rodiles declared in an interview with journalist Tania Costa. "When you live in such conditions of precariousness, marginalization bites you, and marginalization has bitten the Cuban people."
Rodiles directly questioned those in exile who speak of returning to Cuba without considering the magnitude of the challenge: "Sometimes I wonder: do the people here saying they are going back to Cuba really know what they will be facing? Do they understand what they will have to manage?"
To illustrate the difficulty of governing in times of crisis, he cited a historical example: "Let us remember that Tomás Estrada Palma cried out multiple times for the Americans to intervene again. That was a country much simpler than the one we have now."
The first president of Cuba requested military intervention from the United States during the crisis of 1906, which led to his resignation and to the second American occupation of the island. Rodiles uses this precedent to emphasize that present-day Cuba, with its destroyed infrastructure and millions of emigrants, represents an incomparably greater challenge.
When asked about the emergence of the Cuban Orthodox Liberal Party (PLOC), founded by Amelia Calzadilla from Madrid on April 27, Rodiles acknowledged everyone's right to organize but was straightforward about its viability: "To have a party, you need financial backing."
He pointed out that most of the funding for opposition organizations and Cuban NGOs comes from external institutions, and that money disappears as soon as the beneficiary deviates from the donors' guidelines: "That money, the day you say something that does not align with their lines, is gone."
Rodiles spoke from his own experience: "For the moment, you can appear, and the next day you can be made to disappear, because meetings, connections, trips, Geneva—all that depends on external actors." He further revealed that an NGO withdrew a project from him for making statements that were not to the organization’s liking, and announced that he will publish the document that proves this.
He also reported that the "Campaign for Another Cuba," which he himself promoted along with others, "was destroyed from outside."
Beyond funding, Rodiles identified a deeper structural problem: the lack of concrete planning for the country's reconstruction. "The issue isn't that I say 'I want a beautiful, lovely, painted Cuba', because everyone wants that. The real issue is reality," he asserted.
He listed unanswered questions: who will award the bids, who will reconstruct the aqueduct, how will political parties be financed, who will control the radio and television stations. On this last point, he was emphatic: "Who are the radio and television stations that can, in real life, go from destroying and crushing one individual to highlighting another? Who will manage those budgets? That is the problem."
Rodiles' analysis aligns with a growing debate surrounding the fragmentation of the Cuban opposition in exile, which some analysts have described as a strategic gift for the regime.
Rodiles did not absolve the United States government of responsibility: "The U.S. government, all previous administrations, including Trump's, has also been part of the problem because they have controlled the budgets of those institutions and have created conflicts."
His final warning sums up the tone of his entire intervention: "I believe it's time for a bit of grounding and clear discussion, which for some reason we are reluctant to have. We don't want to have it, Tania. And my question is: what are we waiting for? To have it on the day that castroism falls and we land in that country that is in ruins?"
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