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The Electric Union (UNE) forecasted on Monday a shortfall of 2,147 MW for the peak nighttime period, with an availability of only 1,133 MW against an estimated maximum demand of 3,250 MW, which represents a projected deficit of 2,117 MW exceeding the threshold of 2,100 MW.
The situation at dawn was already critical: by 6:00 am, the demand was 2,700 MW with 1,567 MW affected, and by noon an additional impact of 1,600 MW is expected.
Sunday was equally devastating.
The UNE confirmed that "the highest impact due to a deficit in generation capacity yesterday was 2,050 MW at 9:30 PM, exceeding planned demand estimates," with outages lasting for 24 hours and throughout the night.
In Havana, the situation came close to total collapse. The Electric Company of Havana reported that service was interrupted for 23 hours and 11 minutes, with a maximum impact of 479 MW at 11:30 PM and 127 MW shut off due to emergencies.
At the end of the report, 353 MW were still out of service and "the impact on the blocks and circuits due to energy contingencies, without a scheduled time, depends on the availability conditions of the SEN."
The accumulated breakdowns explain the collapse. According to the official report, five units from the CTE Ernesto Guevara de la Serna, Antonio Guiteras, Lidio Ramón Pérez, and Antonio Maceo are out of service.
In addition, there are units under maintenance at the CTE Mariel, Renté, and Nuevitas, with an additional 296 MW out of service due to limitations in thermal generation.
La Guiteras, the most powerful plant in the country, went out of service again on Sunday due to a "leak in the economizer," marking its ninth or tenth breakdown so far in 2026.
Just six days earlier, it had been synchronized with the SEN after repairs that included faulty tubes and issues with the sealing in the furnace.
On May 14, a previous outage at Guiteras caused by a leak in the boiler resulted in a record deficit of 2,174 MW, leaving the area from Ciego de Ávila to Guantánamo without electricity. On Monday, a manager of the plant denied that the recurring failures were due to poorly executed repairs.
The only positive note in the official report is the production from the 54 new photovoltaic solar parks, which generated 3,829 MWh on Sunday with a maximum capacity of 480 MW at noon. However, solar energy does not cover the nighttime deficit, which is when demand peaks.
The crisis is a result of a structural deterioration that the regime has been ignoring for decades.
The available capacity of large thermal plants fell from 2,548 MW in 2022 to 1,993 MW in 2024, a reduction of 22%.
76% of electricity relies on imported fossil fuels, and since December 2025, only one fuel ship has arrived when the system requires eight per month. Technical losses in transmission exceed 16%, double the international standard.
While the impoverished neighborhoods remain in darkness for almost the entire day, luxury hotels and government facilities maintain their own electricity, a fact that has sparked increasing public outrage and which the Office of Tourism of Cuba in London itself acknowledged by admitting that the hotels have "independent power systems and backup generators."
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