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The National Electric System (SEN) of Cuba faces one of the most critical days of the year this Wednesday, with a projected impact of 1,975 MW during the peak nighttime hours, according to the informative note from the Electric Union.
At 06:00 hours this Wednesday, the availability of the SEN was only 1,175 MW against a demand of 2,713 MW, with 1,594 MW already impacted since the early morning.
For peak demand hours, the Electric Union projects a capacity of 1,255 MW against a demand of 3,200 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,945 MW. "If the expected conditions persist, a shortfall of 1,975 MW is forecasted during this period," warns the state agency.
The only announced temporary measure is the entry of unit two of the CTE Santa Cruz with just 80 MW, a figure that is marginal compared to the magnitude of the deficit.
Tuesday was no better: "The highest impact due to generation capacity deficit yesterday was 1,919 MW at 10:00 PM," with outages extending throughout the 24 hours and into the entire early morning.
The accumulated failures explain the collapse: Unit Two of the CTE Ernesto Guevara De La Serna, one unit of the CTE Antonio Guiteras, Unit Two of the CTE Lidio Ramón Pérez, and Unit Five of the CTE Antonio Maceo are out of service.
This is compounded by units under maintenance at the CTE Mariel, Renté, and Nuevitas, and an additional 368 MW offline due to limitations in thermal generation.
The CTE Antonio Guiteras, a key plant in the system, has suffered at least three breakdowns just in May, the most recent occurring between May 24 and 25 due to a leak in the boiler while it was generating around 200 MW, as reported by the Electric Union itself.
The 54 installed photovoltaic solar parks, serving as a temporary measure, generated 3,229 MWh yesterday, reaching a peak of 428 MW at midday. This output is insufficient to offset the structural deficit and, furthermore, it does not operate during the nighttime hours of peak demand.
This Wednesday fits into a pattern of sustained decline throughout May. The electric deficit has exceeded 1,900 MW on several days this month, with a record high for the year of 2,153 MW being registered on May 13.
The backdrop is structural: thermoelectric plants with decades of usage without sufficient investment, chronic fuel shortages, and solar generation that only operates during the day without storage systems. On March 16, Cuba experienced its sixth total blackout in a year and a half, leaving all 11 million inhabitants of the island without electricity.
While the regime does not offer concrete short-term solutions, Cubans face yet another day of massive blackouts that last for 24 hours, with no relief in sight.
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