Roberto Fernández Rizo, a Cuban expert in consultancy and project development based in Colombia, states in an interview for CiberCuba that the transition in Cuba already began on January 3rd of this year, when the economic dependence of the regime on Venezuela was broken.
His argument begins with a deliberately simple definition: "What do they mean by calling people transition with that word? It is to move from one time, one space to another. It's just that, it's not such a technical or ideological word."
For Fernández Rizo, the trigger was clear: the capture of Nicolás Maduro by the DEA, which abruptly interrupted the flow of Venezuelan oil to the Island.
Cuba depended on Venezuela for about 26,500 barrels of oil and fuels per day, which accounted for approximately one third of its energy needs, in a scheme that financed both the formal economy and the informal circuits of the regime.
"Cuba relied on Venezuela for its main structure; everything flowed in through there, both legal and illegal. If you break that, a transition begins," he explained.
Regarding whether the regime is aware of this process, Fernández Rizo has no doubts: "Yes, of course, because they are aware and based on their responses. The thing is, everything is shrouded in darkness, there is no transparency, and there are no official communications, except for a few."
He describes the regime's situation as a "sandwich": "They are caught in between two pieces of bread, one side being the pressure from the United States government and on the other side, the Cuban people who have them there."
However, he acknowledges that the situation "has changed a lot and hasn't changed at all," because what he calls a standstill persists, in which the Cuban diaspora remains sidelined from real decisions.
"We're not present; we're in the stands. Who's playing? The government, the regime, the little group, and the government of the United States," he noted.
In light of that reality, his call is for active preparation: "We Cubans, who should number around 14 or 15 million along with our descendants spread across the world, are the ones who need to be prepared for that small group who are making decisions on our behalf."
Fernández Rizo argues that this preparation must be visible and organized: "That's why I agree with people forming parties, proposing ideas, creating movements; they need to make themselves seen and present their ideas. There is no other way."
The expert has also drafted a Constitution for the transition based on four premises: legal security, political stability, private property, and correct incentives, grounded in classical liberalism and the Austrian school of economics.
In this context, he argues that the reconstruction of Cuba must begin with the complete dismantling of the current system, including the privatization or audit of GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls tourism, commerce, remittances, ports, and the country's finances.
The debate on how to finance this reconstruction is also progressing: Cuban exiles have committed 35 billion dollars to invest in Cuba, contingent upon political and institutional changes.
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