The sanctions against GAESA, the federal accusation against Raúl Castro, and the tightening of rhetoric by the Trump administration have sparked a debate among analysts about whether Cuba is approaching a political breaking point, according to an analysis published this Tuesday by Bloomberg Línea.
"I believe it is very difficult for Cuba to emerge from the coming months with a political and economic structure similar to the current one," stated Yaxys Cires, director of strategy at the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights (OCDH).
Cires warned that Washington is moving towards a phase of "maximum pressure" on the regime, although the outcome will depend on whether there is a "negotiated exit" from the Cuban leadership.
The pressure that built up in May included the deployment of an aircraft carrier in international Caribbean waters, leading some analysts to draw parallels with the strategy that Washington employed against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, which culminated in his extraction following a military incursion in Caracas on January 3rd.
However, experts consider that scenario unlikely in the Cuban case.
"I do not find it likely; I think it is possible, but in terms of probabilities, I wouldn't even say it's at 50%, due to the complexities involved in extracting Raúl Castro from Cuba alive, who will turn 95 in a few weeks," stated Juan Antonio Blanco, historian and president of the academic platform Cuba Siglo 21.
Blanco agreed that the island's "status" could undergo significant changes this year, but he was unequivocal about the regime's attitude: "Unfortunately, knowing the psychology of the Castro family, which has been in power for 67 years as if it were an absolute despotic monarchy that can do whatever it wants without consequences, it is very unlikely that they will take seriously what is happening."
The analyst also noted that, in the event of a potential U.S. intervention, "the circumstances are more than ripe" for the population and even a part of the Armed Forces to "side with the overthrow of the system."
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled Castro a "fugitive" and denounced that GAESA —a military conglomerate founded by Castro himself 30 years ago— "has 18 billion dollars in assets and controls 70% of the Cuban economy," although he refused to disclose Washington's plans regarding his potential capture.
Trump himself downplayed a potential escalation on May 20: "No, there will not be an escalation. Look, the place is crumbling. It's a disaster and it seems they have lost control. They have really lost control of Cuba."
The regime responded defiantly. Mariela Castro, daughter of Raúl and a member of the National Assembly, stated on May 22 that Cuba was ready to "fight" and that "nobody is going to kidnap him."
Miguel Díaz-Canel described the accusation as a political action "without any legal basis" that aims to "justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba."
Meanwhile, more than 50 opposition organizations from the exile community signed the "Liberation Agreement" on March 2nd, which outlines a four-phase roadmap —liberation, stabilization, reconstruction, and democratization— that includes the dismantling of the Communist Party of Cuba.
Cires emphasized that the opposition is not calling for military intervention: "The regime itself, through its indifference, has brought Cuba to the extreme situation it is in today."
The internal situation exacerbates external pressure: Cuba reported a power deficit exceeding 2,100 MW this Monday, with blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day, while analysts warn that the country could become ungovernable without massive private investment, which is impossible under the current regime.
Blanco pointed out that the evolution of negotiations between the United States and Iran could also influence Washington's strategy towards Cuba: "Explaining a victory for the United States will be more complicated than explaining an easy and quick victory in Cuba, a country that lacks defensive capability."
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