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The sanctions against GAESA, the federal accusation against Raúl Castro, and the hardening of the Trump administration's rhetoric have sparked a debate among analysts about whether Cuba is nearing a political breaking point, according to an analysis published this Tuesday by Bloomberg Línea.
"I believe it is very difficult for Cuba to emerge in the coming months with a political and economic structure similar to the current one," stated Yaxys Cires, director of strategy at the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights (OCDH).
Cires warned that Washington is moving towards a stage of "maximum pressure" on the regime, although the outcome will depend on whether or not there is a "negotiated exit" for the Cuban leadership.
The pressure accumulated in May included the deployment of an aircraft carrier in international waters of the Caribbean, leading some analysts to draw parallels with the strategy that Washington applied against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, which culminated in his extraction after a military incursion in Caracas on January 3.
However, experts consider that scenario unlikely in the case of Cuba.
"I don't find it likely; I believe it is possible, but in terms of probabilities, I wouldn't even place it at 50%, considering the complexities involved in extracting Raúl Castro from Cuba alive, who is about to turn 95 in a few weeks," stated Juan Antonio Blanco, historian and president of the academic platform Cuba Siglo 21.
Blanco agreed that the island's "status" could undergo significant changes this year, but he was unequivocal about the regime's attitude: "Unfortunately, knowing the psychology of the Castro family, which has been in power for 67 years as if it were an absolute despotic monarchy that can act with impunity, it is very unlikely that they will take what is happening seriously."
The analyst also noted that, in the event of a potential U.S. intervention, "the circumstances are more than ripe" for the population and even a segment of the Armed Forces to "side with the overthrow of the system."
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Castro as a "fugitive" and denounced that GAESA —the military conglomerate founded by Castro himself 30 years ago— "has 18 billion dollars in assets and controls 70% of the Cuban economy," although he refused to disclose Washington's plans regarding his eventual capture.
Trump himself downplayed a possible escalation on May 20: "No, there will be no escalation. Look, the place is falling apart. It's a disaster and they seem to have lost control. They have really lost control of Cuba."
The regime responded defiantly. Mariela Castro, daughter of Raúl and member of the National Assembly, stated on May 22 that Cuba was prepared to "fight" and that "no one is going to abduct him."
Miguel Díaz-Canel described the accusation as a political action "without any legal basis" that seeks to "justify the folly of a military aggression against Cuba."
In parallel, more than 50 opposition organizations in exile signed the "Liberation Agreement" on March 2, with a roadmap consisting of four phases —liberation, stabilization, reconstruction, and democratization— which includes the dismantling of the Communist Party of Cuba.
Cires emphasized that the opposition is not calling for military intervention: "The regime itself, with its indifference, has brought Cuba to the extreme situation it is in today."
The internal situation exacerbates external pressure: Cuba reported on Monday an electricity deficit exceeding 2,100 MW, with blackouts of up to 20 hours daily, while analysts warn that the country could become ungovernable without massive private investment that is impossible under the current regime.
Blanco pointed out that the evolution of negotiations between the United States and Iran could also influence Washington's strategy towards Cuba: "Explaining a U.S. victory will be more complicated than explaining an easy and quick victory in Cuba, a country that lacks defensive capability."
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