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The Spanish medium El Confidencial published an analysis warning that the Trump administration could fail in a potential intervention plan in Cuba.
The article notes that Washington has tried this before and it didn't go well. According to the authors of the text, G. M. Piantadosi and E. Torrico, replicating the success of the operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro on January 3 may not be so straightforward in Cuba.
Piantadosi and Torrico draw a parallel between the current strategy of maximum pressure on Havana and the historical Operation Mongoose, the covert program initiated by the Kennedy administration following the Bay of Pigs failure in 1961, which was canceled without successfully overthrowing Fidel Castro.
The piece analyzes the scenarios currently being studied in Washington and concludes that a direct intervention is still considered unlikely by most experts, despite the sustained escalation in recent months.
In May 2026, the Trump administration has combined several simultaneous fronts: naval deployments in the Caribbean, military exercises in terrains similar to those of Cuba, legal actions against figures of the regime, and an increasingly aggressive rhetoric.
The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz arrived in the Caribbean on May 20 as part of Operation Southern Seas 2026, accompanied by the destroyer USS Gridley, the logistics vessel USNS Patuxent, and amphibious units. Southern Command described the deployment as a demonstration of "preparedness, reach, and unmatched lethality."
That same day, the federal indictment of Raúl Castro was made public —approved by a grand jury on April 23— for the shooting down of two planes from Brothers to the Rescue on February 24, 1996, which resulted in the deaths of four Cuban Americans: Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Costa, Mario de la Peña, and Pablo Morales.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared in a cabinet meeting that "Cuba is in serious trouble" and described the regime as a threat to the national security of the United States.
According to reports from Politico and Axios, the Pentagon has conducted interagency planning exercises that include everything from targeted airstrikes to a ground invasion, although no execution orders have been issued. Officials quoted by Axios stated that "everything is on the table," but clarified that "there is no planned or imminent invasion."
The internal strategy has been described as "accelerationism": a staged pressure to force a collapse of the regime without immediate intervention. Trump himself summarized it on May 20: "No. There will be no escalation. I don't think it's necessary," arguing that Cuba "is falling apart."
The economic context supports this interpretation. CEPAL estimates a contraction of the Cuban GDP of 6.5% for 2026, while The Economist Intelligence Unit projects a decrease of 7.2%, with a cumulative contraction nearing 23% since 2019.
The regime, for its part, declared 2026 as the "year of preparation for defense" and activated the doctrine of "total people's war." The National Assembly of People's Power issued a statement warning of a "real and dangerous threat of direct military aggression by the Government of the United States," while reiterating its willingness to engage in dialogue "based on respect for our sovereignty."
Since early 2026, U.S. forces have been training in tropical jungles, rivers, and swamps under the coordination of Southern Command, in conditions that replicate environments such as the Zapata Swamp and mountainous areas of eastern Cuba, which has intensified speculation about Washington's actual plans.
Operation Mongoose, the historical precedent that El Confidencial brings to the forefront, demonstrated over sixty years ago the limits of regime change policy through clandestine means.
Today, with an economically devastated Cuba but a regime that continues to control its power structures, the question of whether history could repeat itself —with the same outcome— remains unanswered.
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