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The Trump administration is preparing for a potential collapse of the Cuban government as early as this summer and has conducted military planning exercises to respond if the island descends into chaos, according to Axios this Thursday, citing multiple senior officials from the White House.
The U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) conducted a multi-agency tabletop exercise last month to prepare military action plans for Cuba.
"Everything is on the table, but there is no invasion planned or imminent. When the president says it's time to act, we will be ready for anything," declared one of the officials.
The strategy was described by a high-ranking official as "accelerationism": a methodical, staged pressure designed to suffocate the regime without toppling it abruptly. "But we don't want to kill the regime just yet. There's a method. It's step by step," the official clarified.
A third senior official warned that the pressure has not yet reached its limit: "We have a fairly extensive toolbox, especially regarding sanctions and their enforcement. More is on the way."
The exercise included discussions about the alleged drones possessed by Cuba and how to respond to potential disturbances during the heat of summer.
"It’s going to be hot. People won’t have electricity. Food will spoil without refrigeration. People get angry. They may take to the streets. So what happens then? I can’t imagine the president doing nothing if there is repression," one of the sources stated.
However, there are internal divisions. A Trump advisor warned that the president "does not want boots on the ground for more than 48 hours" and labeled a possible intervention as "a swamp in the making."
Economic pressure on Havana has intensified in recent weeks.
On May 1st, Trump signed an executive order imposing secondary sanctions against foreign companies that do business with GAESA, the Cuban military-industrial conglomerate.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally announced the sanctions on May 7, with a deadline of June 5 for foreign companies to cease operations.
The consequences were immediate: shipping companies CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd halted operations in Cuba, along with the Canadian mining company Sherritt International. It is anticipated that financial institutions and hotel chains from Spain, Panama, and Mexico will also withdraw.
Max Meizlish, a former Treasury official specializing in sanctions on Cuba, summarized the scope of the offensive: "We have never seen this level of pressure. It's a completely new game."
The regional turning point was the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3 during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, which cut off free shipments of Venezuelan oil to Cuba and triggered a new energy crisis on the island, with blackouts lasting up to 20-25 hours daily.
Economic pressure was compounded by legal pressure: on May 20, the Department of Justice unveiled a federal murder indictment against Raúl Castro for ordering the downing of Brothers to the Rescue planes in 1996. On the same day, SOUTHCOM announced the arrival of the Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group in the Caribbean.
The strategy also includes incentives. The U.S. announced 100 million dollars in humanitarian assistance for Cuba, routed through the Catholic Church and other charitable organizations, without going through the government.
"If we wanted to accelerate the collapse, we wouldn't have sent any aid," explained a senior official.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla rejected the U.S. narrative and stated to Fox News that the U.S. and Rubio are manipulating public opinion to justify a military intervention.
"Politics is complicated on both sides of the Florida Strait," concluded one of the officials quoted by Axios. "But we have time. The regime does not."
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