The real estate market in Miami-Dade is entering a phase of sustained cooling following years of pandemic boom, according to the preliminary report of taxable values published by the county's Property Appraiser's Office, led by Tomás Regalado.
The growth of the total taxable value was only 5.5%, equivalent to 540.7 billion dollars, far below the 12% recorded in 2024 and the 8.7% in 2025, and also below the 7% projection that budget officials from the county had estimated.
The brake in numbers
The value of new construction fell from approximately 8.6 billion dollars in 2025 to 5.1 billion in 2026, and the growth rate of existing property values dropped from 6.8% to 4.4% in just one year.
“There is a downward trend. It is undeniable. New construction is decreasing. Homes are staying on the market longer than in previous years,” stated Regalado to the Miami Herald.
Ron Shuffield, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty, believes that the market is recalibrating after an unsustainable period: "What we have experienced in the last 24 months is essentially a pause. We cannot continue to increase prices by 15% to 20% annually."
The condo market, the weakest link
Regalado identified the condominium segment as the main drawback: "The luxury condominium market is stagnant. However, older condominiums are losing value."
Since the collapse of Champlain Towers South in Surfside in 2021, Florida laws have mandated more frequent structural inspections and reserve funds for repairs, which has driven up fees in older buildings and pushed many owners to sell at a discount.
Aventura, where more than 90% of the real estate market consists of condominiums, recorded one of the worst performances: existing properties increased by less than 1% and new construction dropped from 57 million dollars two years ago to just seven million in 2026.
Who goes up and who goes down?
Not all of the county is moving in the same direction.
Florida City recorded an increase of 11.7% and Opa-locka 10.4%, driven by buyers seeking more affordable homes in peripheral areas.
North Miami Beach recorded the highest increase in existing properties, with a rise of 15.2%, although it experienced negative construction activity in 2025 due to the impact of demolitions.
The exclusive villa in Indian Creek, known as the "Billionaires' Bunker," increased by 10.3% despite having no new construction, partly driven by the purchase of a mansion by Meta's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, for $170 million, a historic record for residential sales in Miami-Dade.
The "double blow" for local governments
The slowdown comes at a time of dual fiscal pressure for local governments.
The immediate background is the budget deficit of $402 million faced by Miami-Dade in the 2025-2026 cycle, which required the elimination of 360 positions, a reduction of departments by 10% to 35%, the closure of senior centers, and an increase in transportation fares from $2.25 to $2.75.
In addition, the Florida Legislature approved the constitutional amendment HJR 1F, advocated by Governor Ron DeSantis, which would raise the homestead exemption from the current $50,000 to $150,000 in January 2027 and to $250,000 in January 2028.
If voters approve it in November with the required 60%, Miami-Dade could lose approximately $500 million annually in tax revenue.
Ron Book, president of the Miami-Dade Homeless Trust, warned that the impact will be felt in the most vulnerable sectors: "Charitable organizations and community groups not in those exemption categories like education may face difficulties in continuing to receive funding from the government."
The current figures are preliminary; the official certification of the 2026 valuation records is scheduled for July 1, 2026, at which time the definitive numbers will be revealed that will serve as the basis for calculating property taxes for the fiscal year 2027.
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