Related videos:
The Miami-Dade real estate market is entering a phase of sustained cooling following years of pandemic boom, according to a preliminary report on taxable values published by the county's Property Appraiser's Office, led by Tomás Regalado.
The growth of the total taxable value was only 5.5%, equivalent to 540.7 billion dollars, well below the 12% recorded in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025, and also below the 7% projection that the county's budget officials had estimated.
The brake in numbers
The value of new construction fell from approximately 8.6 billion dollars in 2025 to 5.1 billion in 2026, and the growth of the value of existing properties dropped from 6.8% to 4.4% in just one year.
"There is a downward trend. It is undeniable. New construction is decreasing. Homes are staying on the market longer than in previous years," stated Regalado to the Miami Herald.
Ron Shuffield, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty, believes that the market is recalibrating after an unsustainable period: “What we have experienced in the last 24 months is basically a pause. We cannot continue to increase prices by 15% to 20% annually.”
The condominium market, the weakest link
Regalado identified the condominium segment as the main burden: "The luxury condominium market is stagnant. However, older condominiums are losing value."
Since the collapse of Champlain Towers South in Surfside in 2021, Florida laws require more frequent structural inspections and reserve funds for repairs, which has driven up fees in older buildings and pushed many owners to sell at a discount.
Aventura, where more than 90% of the real estate consists of condominiums, recorded one of the worst performances: existing properties increased by less than 1% and new construction fell from 57 million dollars two years ago to just seven million in 2026.
Who goes up and who goes down?
Not everyone in the county is moving in the same direction.
Florida City recorded an increase of 11.7% and Opa-locka 10.4%, led by buyers seeking more affordable housing in outlying areas.
North Miami Beach recorded the highest increase in existing properties, with a rise of 15.2%, although there is a negative construction activity projected for 2025 due to the impact of demolitions.
The exclusive villa in Indian Creek, known as the "Billionaires' Bunker," increased by 10.3% despite no new construction, driven in part by the purchase of a mansion by Meta's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, for 170 million dollars, a historic record for residential sales in Miami-Dade.
The "double blow" for local governments
The slowdown comes at a time of double fiscal pressure for local governments.
The immediate background is the budget deficit of 402 million dollars that Miami-Dade faced in the 2025-2026 cycle, which led to the elimination of 360 positions, cuts in departments ranging from 10% to 35%, the closure of senior centers, and an increase in transportation fares from $2.25 to $2.75.
Additionally, the Florida Legislature approved the constitutional amendment HJR 1F, promoted by Governor Ron DeSantis, which would increase the principal residence exemption from the current $50,000 to $150,000 in January 2027 and to $250,000 in January 2028.
If voters approve it in November with the required 60%, Miami-Dade could lose approximately 500 million dollars annually in tax revenue.
Ron Book, president of the Miami-Dade Homeless Trust, warned that the impact will be felt by the most vulnerable sectors: “Charitable organizations and community groups not falling under those exemption categories, like education, may face difficulties in continuing to receive funding from the government.”
The current figures are preliminary; the official certification of the valuation record for 2026 is scheduled for July 1, 2026, at which time the final numbers will be known that will form the basis for calculating property taxes for the fiscal year 2027.
Filed under: