The Cuban journalist and writer Alfonso Quiñones stated this Sunday that if the Cuban regime does not fall during Donald Trump's presidency, "it will never fall."
The statement emerged in an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba published on June 7, 2026. Quiñones reacted to remarks made by a viewer who suggested, “If they don't fall now with Trump, they will never fall, and it has to happen before November.”
The analyst replied without hesitation: "I agree. They will never fall again."
The writer, who has been living in the Dominican Republic for 25 years, argued that the regime has accumulated 67 years of absolute control.
"It has been 67 years of control over a population. Not just over a population, but over a territory that they know inch by inch, centimeter by centimeter. They know who is there, where they are, and how they are. They know everything," he pointed out.
Quiñones outright dismissed the possibility of an armed popular uprising: "I believe there is no possibility of an uprising with weapons," he said, arguing that technology has further strengthened the historical control in the hands of the regime, while the people have limited access to it.
To illustrate the collapse of Cuba, Quiñones resorted to a comparison he described as "unusual."
"Cuba today is a failed state, even if they don't recognize it. Cuba is worse than Haiti," he asserted, pointing out that he has heard of Cubans traveling to Haiti to buy food.
The data is supported by figures from the CEPAL. Cuba recorded in 2025 the lowest per capita GDP in Latin America, with only US$ 1,082.8, compared to a regional average of US$ 10,212.2, and the projection for 2026 indicates an additional GDP decline of -6.5%.
The writer also highlighted that Haiti, despite its serious issues with armed gangs, offers more freedoms than Cuba.
"In Haiti, you can protest and even go up to the palace in Port-au-Prince." In Cuba, on the other hand, protests have been reduced to basic demands for food and electricity, with "very, very small explosions" that lack the ability to escalate.
In light of this situation, Quiñones suggested that the only viable solution for the Island would be an internal rebellion within the Armed Forces. He used the historical example of the end of Rafael Leónidas Trujillo's dictatorship in the Dominican Republic in 1961.
"The only way Cuba could free itself from that situation would be an uprising within the military, similar to what happened with Trujillo here in Santo Domingo, where it was those close to him who killed Trujillo. The dog is gone, and so is the rabies."
This stance aligns with calls that former Cuban General Rafael del Pino Díaz has made to FAR officials to exercise the "right of insubordination" and support a democratic transition, as well as the plans that the U.S. reportedly rehearsed in light of a potential collapse of the Cuban government.
Quiñones acknowledged that this path also has its complexities—those conspirators who eliminated Trujillo were subsequently taken out one by one—but he presented it as the only realistic scenario in the face of a repressive apparatus that has lasted for six decades, which, in his view, makes any other form of change unfeasible. "Nothing changes with the same people," he concluded.
Filed under: