The Monetary and Financial Observatory (OMFi) of elTOQUE projects that the dollar could reach 650 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market before the end of June, in its maximum scenario, while the central scenario places it at 620 CUP by the end of the month, according to the monthly bulletin.
The analysis comes at a time of rapid deterioration: between January and May 2026, the peso lost 33.3% of its value against the dollar and 35.4% against the euro, with the informal exchange rate climbing from 435 to 580 CUP per dollar during that period.
May was the worst month of the year for the Cuban peso, with a decline of 8.4% against the dollar in just four weeks.
The pressure did not stop when June arrived.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The dollar crossed the barrier of 600 CUP for the first time on June 2, and this Tuesday it is already trading at 630 CUP, accumulating an increase of 35 CUP in just seven days of the month.
The OMFi clearly diagnoses the root of the problem: "Most of the economy is paralyzed."
The observatory identifies the main triggers as the tightening of sanctions by the Trump administration, the decline in tourism, supply restrictions, and the increase in uncertainty.
Regarding the sanctions, the bulletin is straightforward: "The latest wave of sanctions from the United States represents a further step towards the near-total isolation of Cuba from international markets, especially due to their extraterritorial nature and the risk of secondary sanctions."
The effect is already visible in the tourism sector. Blue Diamond, Iberostar, and Meliá have reduced or ceased operations at dozens of hotels on the island following the deadline set by Washington on June 5 for foreign companies to sever ties with GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls a significant portion of the Cuban economy.
Cuban tourism experienced a year-on-year decline of 55.8% between January and April 2026, with only 328,608 international visitors, according to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank of Cuba has also declined, although at a slower pace: it rose from 411 CUP in December 2025 to 514 CUP in May 2026, an increase of 25.1%.
This Tuesday, the official rate is set at 533 CUP, which indicates a gap of more than 90 CUP compared to the informal market.
The OMFi warns that these pressures "are directly passed on to the prices that consumers pay for imported goods," further impacting the purchasing power of Cubans in a context where the average salary is equivalent to less than 12 dollars at the informal exchange rate.
The observatory notes, however, some signs of moderation in the very short term.
The Market Sentiment Index, which clearly favored buyers on May 21, showed a trend towards a more neutral position in the early days of June.
The breaking of the psychological barrier of 600 CUP could also encourage currency sales and greater caution among buyers, at least temporarily.
However, the structural diagnosis leaves no room for optimism: "If there is no negotiation with the United States, the new phase of isolation will worsen restrictions on foreign currency, imported goods, and productive inputs, leading to more scarcity, social deterioration, and inflationary pressures," concludes the OMFi.
Filed under: