The U.S. dollar reached 650 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market in Cuba this Thursday, according to real-time monitoring by elTOQUE, marking a new historic high for the currency on the island.
The day started with the dollar at 640 CUP, and within a few hours, it climbed an additional 10 pesos to reach the new ceiling.
The euro also rose, standing at 735 CUP (+5), while the Convertible Currency (MLC) fell to 422.45 CUP (-22.45).
Exchange Rate Evolution
The figure precisely matches the maximum scenario that the Monetary and Financial Observatory (OMFi) of elTOQUE had projected for the end of June, but it was reached more than two weeks in advance, according to the monthly bulletin of the observatory.
The increase is part of an upward trend that marks more than 15 consecutive days of depreciation of the Cuban peso.
The June timeline is eloquent: the dollar crossed the 600 CUP barrier for the first time on June 2, reached 630 CUP on the ninth, went up to 640 CUP on Thursday morning, and less than 24 hours later hit 650 CUP.
In just ten days of June, the peso lost 50 CUP against the dollar.
Analysts consulted by elTOQUE were straightforward: "The dollar has no limits in the short term," given that the peso remains weak and the structural imbalances show no signs of correction.
The impact on the population is devastating. With an average salary of just 6,930 CUP per month, according to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) from 2025, a Cuban needs almost 94 days of work to buy 100 dollars at the informal exchange rate.
A study by researcher Javier Pérez Capdevila estimates that covering the basic needs of a person costs 96,060 CUP per month, equivalent to 14 average salaries.
The structural causes are numerous. The OMFi diagnoses clearly: "The majority of the economy is paralyzed." The observatory identifies the triggers as the tightening of sanctions by the Trump administration, the collapse of tourism— a 55.8% year-on-year decline between January and April 2026, with only 328,608 visitors—the chronic shortage of foreign currency, and the issuance of money without productive backing.
The regime issued 2,000 and 5,000 peso bills in March 2026, justifying the measure as a necessity to "facilitate cash transactions," implicitly acknowledging that inflation had eroded the value of circulating cash.
Since 2020, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar in the informal market: it went from 42 CUP to 650 CUP in six years.
The symbolic thresholds have been broken with increasing speed: 200 CUP in October 2022, 300 CUP in February 2024, 400 CUP in August 2025, 500 CUP in February 2026 and now 650 CUP this Friday.
The OMFi warned that "if negotiations with the United States do not take place, the new phase of isolation will worsen restrictions on foreign currency, imported goods, and productive inputs, leading to increased shortages, social decline, and inflationary pressures." Economist Elías Amor went even further by projecting that "it is most likely that the change will approach 1 per thousand."
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