Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas, president of the Cuba Study Group, stated this Monday that the Cuban regime has exhausted its room for maneuver and that the only viable solution lies in a written and bilateral agreement with Washington.
"Cuba has run out of options, and the things that could have happened with Obama, which occurred at another time, belong to a different world today," he declared in an interview with Tania Costa, on CiberCuba.
Saladrigas was emphatic in stating that any verbal understanding lacks real value given the regime's history. "There must be a signed commitment, an arrangement, a signed pact between the United States and Cuba. A signed document where the United States commits to these things and Cuba commits to that," he insisted, recalling the failure of the process initiated under the Obama Administration, when Havana did not meet the expectations of openness generated by the normalization of 2014-2016.
For the businessman, the credibility asymmetry between both parties is the crux of the problem. "If the regime were to breach a signed agreement, Washington would not be left defenseless: 'We always have the hammer in hand because U.S. military power is extraordinary.'"
Saladrigas described the process that he believes should be followed for a potential agreement with the Trump Administration. First, a temporary lifting of the embargo for 12 or 24 months, a sufficient time frame for a National Unification Commission—with representation from the diaspora—to design the details of an orderly transition.
"That would be the logical process," he noted, indicating that Congress has the authority to approve it if the president requests it, and that both Democrats and Republicans would support it in that context.
At the same time, Saladrigas emphasized that the United States should send significant humanitarian aid to the island, but cautioned that the main obstacle is structural. "The problem with humanitarian aid in Cuba is that no one has the capacity to distribute it," he said. At this point, he revealed that he works closely with the Catholic Church and that there is a concrete project to address that issue.
"We have a project to build an Amazon-style distribution center for the Catholic Church in Cuba in Havana." Nonetheless, he acknowledged that even this initiative, which would be ready in a timeframe of six to eight months, "will not be enough to tackle a true humanitarian crisis."
Saladrigas' analysis comes three days after Díaz-Canel announced a package of economic reforms on June 12, which includes increased autonomy for state enterprises, an opening for investment from the diaspora, and a reduction of the bureaucratic apparatus from 27 to 20 ministries. Saladrigas acknowledged some value in the signal but insisted that the measures are insufficient, lack a solid legal basis, and do not address the liberation of civil society.
The businessman also warned that to achieve the agreement sought by Trump, actions are needed, not words. "To reach that Good Deal that President Trump desires, we need to see actions rather than announcements, concrete actions from the Cuban side," he stated. He concluded with a question that he himself described as rhetorical: "What options does the Cuban government have if not to resolve the problem they are facing? Now, we all wish this issue could be resolved in a way that is least harmful to sovereignty."
On June 11, the White House had already sent a direct message to the Cuban regime urging it to negotiate "before it's too late." This was done as part of a maximum pressure policy that includes sanctions on the supply of Venezuelan fuel and discreet conversations between officials from both governments, the details of which have not been made public.
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