The Cuban political scientist and researcher Armando Chaguaceda, Karl Loewenstein Fellow and visiting professor of Political Science at Amherst College, analyzed in a live interview with CiberCuba, the possible scenarios for a transition in Cuba and proposed three competing models, advocating for full democratization as the only sustainable path. Regarding Washington's strategy, he recommended maintaining conversations with the regime, without easing pressure, appealing to the "carrot and stick" approach: "You need to know that there is a future for you, but there is a future that can be very bad, or that you might not reach, if you do not negotiate."
The three scenarios identified by Chaguaceda are: first, economic liberalization without political change, driven by sectors of the regime and proposals such as the reconstruction plan by Carlos Saladrigas, estimated to cost between 6 billion and 10 billion dollars. Chaguaceda dismisses this model with a striking metaphor: "You are negotiating with a mobster, you leave the mobster in control of the gun, and the mobster can take everything away from you again tomorrow."
The second scenario is that of stabilization without changes, which aims to buy time. "They want to buy time by betting on the Midterm elections in the United States; on a weakening of Trump, on a Democratic takeover, and on a withdrawal from these initiatives of force projection," he explained.
The third scenario, which Chaguaceda supports with conviction, is full democratization. "The third scenario, which is that of democratization, is the one that, in the long run, paradoxically, would be the most pragmatic, the most sustainable, and the most beneficial for almost all parties," he stated.
This model entails simultaneous political and economic opening, a moratorium on repression, national dialogue, the release of all political prisoners, and support from multilateral organizations, Europe, and Latin America, using the transitions in Eastern Europe, especially Poland, as a reference.
The interview with Chaguaceda also addressed the protests taking place in Cuba since March 6, the negotiations between Havana and Washington confirmed by Díaz-Canel on March 13, and the dismissal of Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, who was replaced by Gustavo González López, linked to the intelligence apparatus of SEBIN.
Chaguaceda precisely used Padrino's dismissal to illustrate the differences between Venezuela and Cuba. "Venezuela is an autocratic regime, fragmented by power factions, in which Maduro was the 'primus inter pares'. But Cuba is a very centralized system, different," he noted.
Regarding the Venezuelan leadership change, he was straightforward: "We’re taking out the people in the front line photo with Maduro and we’re going to put in someone else. That’s what we’re going to see in the coming times."
The researcher described the Cuban regime at its moment of greatest fragility: "Every dictatorship, every autocracy rests on three pillars: cooptation, legitimization, and repression. What remains for Cuba, in essence, is repression," he said.
This should be added that the Island has a political prisoner population similar to that of Russia, being a state with a population 12 to 13 times smaller, it was highlighted.
Regarding the leadership of this process, he mentioned profiles such as José Daniel Ferrer, Rosa María Payá, and Father Alberto Reyes, prioritizing those who have presence and legitimacy within Cuba.
Chaguaceda was unequivocal about the possible future for the island: "Cuba can achieve the prosperity of the Dominican Republic and the democratic quality of Costa Rica. It can achieve this; it only needs a regime change. Not an economic reform, not an opening up, not 40 paladares and 5 thousand SMEs, but a regime change."
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