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The electronically signed memorandum of understanding on Sunday between the United States and Iran leaves more questions than answers: according to an analysis by Axios, eight critical points remain unresolved and the accounts from Washington and Tehran regarding what was agreed upon are, in several respects, contradictory.
The document was signed by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, although the formal signing ceremony is scheduled for this Friday in Geneva, with the participation of envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and mediators from Pakistan and Qatar.
1. Is the agreement really in effect? The 60-day ceasefire took effect immediately, but the Strait of Hormuz will not open until after the ceremony on Friday. Trump announced on Sunday the "immediate" lifting of the blockade, but then he corrected himself.
2. Will the strait really reopen? Washington assures that there will be no tolls or restrictions. However, Iranian officials told state media that the strait will not return to its "pre-war status" and that Iran will maintain some level of control. The Fars agency reported that Iran will charge environmental and security fees after 60 days. The shipping company Maersk and other companies are seeking guarantees before transporting cargo through the route.
3. What does Iran gain? Both parties agree that Iran receives an end to the fighting and exemptions from sanctions to export oil. However, Iranian state media claimed that the government would also receive billions in frozen funds just for signing. A senior U.S. official completely denied this, describing it as a "pay-for-performance model."
4. Do they agree on what was decided? The negotiations were conducted indirectly, through mediators, and the memorandum is a broad political understanding, not a detailed treaty. Senator Lindsey Graham warned: "I'm somewhat concerned that Iran's view on the agreement appears to be different from what the U.S. negotiating team is asserting."
5. Will the text be published? An official stated that the complete text would be disclosed within 24 to 48 hours. Trump suggested that it might not be released until after Friday.
6. Will Israel comply? The agreement requires Israel to observe a ceasefire in Lebanon, but Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon or refrain from responding to Hezbollah attacks. An Israeli attack in Beirut on Sunday nearly derailed the agreement and led Trump to say that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "doesn't have an ounce of judgment."
7. Will there ever be a nuclear agreement? The memorandum opens a 60-day window for nuclear negotiations, but U.S. officials acknowledge that it will be "very difficult" to reach a definitive pact given the mutual distrust. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that these negotiations will not begin until Iran receives the frozen funds; Vance denied this yesterday.
8. Will the war resume? The U.S. will not withdraw its forces from the region without a nuclear agreement. Iranian officials, for their part, assert that Trump was desperate to end the conflict and that Tehran now has the upper hand.
The analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt from the firm Verisk Maplecroft accurately summarized the situation: "The threat of renewed conflict will persist in the coming months. Pushing the more difficult issues to later negotiations prolongs uncertainty and leaves the underlying confrontation unresolved."
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