President Donald Trump once again placed Cuba at the center of his geopolitical agenda this Friday by stating, in an exclusive interview with the 'Axios Show', that the island could receive "the same treatment as Venezuela" and that its geographical proximity makes it a reachable target: "Venezuela is relatively close and Cuba is just a jump away."
The statement was made during a 45-minute conversation recorded in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, led by correspondent Marc Caputo and released shortly after Trump returned from the G7 summit in France and following the signing of the preliminary peace agreement with Iran.
When asked directly whether an action against Cuba could be as swift as the military operation in January that resulted in Nicolás Maduro's capture in just 48 minutes, Trump replied candidly: "It's possible. These places are close. Whereas if you look at Iran, that's a very long trip."
The president acknowledged, however, a structural difference between the two countries: "Venezuela has oil. Cuba does not. Cuba has good properties and a beautiful coastline." The comparison reveals that Washington assesses Cuba from a different logic than the one it applied in Caracas, where control of oil was a determining factor.
Trump also hinted at a negotiated exit, though he maintained a pressure-oriented tone. "We are going to involve Marco in Cuba," he said, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents emigrated from the island and who, according to the president, "is doing a great job" in shaping the policy towards Havana.
Trump's words do not come in a vacuum. On June 4, the president had already promised to address Cuba after resolving the Iranian front, labeling the regime a "failed nation" and asserting that "the regime must be disposed of." Days later, on June 10, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a direct warning from Central Command: "Don't play that game where you threaten Americans, because it won't end well for you." Hegseth also visited the Guantanamo Naval Base that day and declared that "the future of Cuba is in the hands of its leaders and the president of the United States."
The pressure that has built up since January 2026 is unprecedented: the Trump administration has imposed over 240 sanctions against Cuba, including Executive Order 14404 of May 1—which introduces secondary sanctions against third parties that engage with blocked Cuban entities—and the sanction on CUPET announced by Rubio on June 11, which blocked the assets of the state oil company under U.S. jurisdiction.
This scenario of external pressure coincides with the worst energy crisis Cuba has experienced in decades. At the beginning of this month, the Electric Union projected a generation capacity of only 1,090 MW against a demand of 3,050 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,960 MW and blackouts affecting up to 65% of the country. The decline in Venezuelan crude oil supply—directly resulting from the capture of Maduro—has exacerbated a situation that was already critical.
The regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel has responded with rhetoric of resistance. In the face of Trump's threats, it warned that a U.S. military action could lead to a "bloody confrontation of incalculable consequences" and promised "determined and firm combat." However, these words stand in stark contrast to the reality of a country without electricity, without fuel, and lacking the allies that historically supported it.
Furthermore, the Cuban president and his inner circle announced a desperate package of 176 measures, which involve an unprecedented economic opening; however, according to several analysts, these measures come too late to address Cuba's multidimensional crisis, do not affect the dictatorial political essence of the system, and may imply, on the other hand, a fate for the Island similar to that of the Soviet Union, where former leaders of the governing apparatus distributed properties and shares in the country, now as capitalist owners.
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