Who will win: El Tigre or Cepeda?

Today Colombia returns to the polls to determine its next president in a second round of significant importance. Competing are Abelardo de la Espriella, a lawyer and candidate from Defenders of the Homeland, and Iván Cepeda, senator of the Historical Pact and declared continuer of the project of Gustavo Petro. This is not a routine election: it is a decision between two very different diagnoses regarding security, the economy, the role of the State, and the future of Colombian democracy.

In the first round, De la Espriella received 43.7% of the vote—more than 10.3 million votes—compared to Cepeda's 40.9%, or about 9.7 million. The margin was narrow: around 700,000 votes. However, the last authorized polls before the voting ban showed a larger lead for De la Espriella: the National Consulting Council placed him at 48.6% compared to 44.7%, while Guarumo EcoAnalítica gave him 52.6% against 45%. Polls provide guidance but do not replace the final verdict of the citizens.

The key lies in the votes of those who did not reach the final. Paloma Valencia, with 1,639,685 votes, equivalent to 6.92%, announced her support for De la Espriella. Sergio Fajardo, who received just over a million votes, around 4.3%, remained neutral. Claudia López, with a little over 224,000 votes, close to 1%, joined Cepeda's campaign. Among minor candidates, blank votes, and null or unmarked votes, there are about 3.9 million ballots whose redistribution, along with voter abstention, could tip the scales.

Colombia arrives at this moment with enormous strengths: an entrepreneurial society, exceptional natural resources, two coastlines, a significant business network, and a Human Development Index of 0.788, placing it 83rd out of 193 countries. However, it also faces serious challenges: violence from armed groups, drug trafficking, extortion, territorial insecurity, a still high monetary poverty rate of 31.8% in 2024, and an economy that grew by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026, with an unemployment rate of 8.8% in March.

Cepeda offers continuity of the social reforms of petrismo: comprehensive peace through dialogue, increased progressive taxes, strengthening public health and education, a People's Bank, and an environmental agenda opposed to extractivism. De la Espriella proposes the opposite on crucial points: regaining territorial control through a hard security policy, ending "total peace," reducing barriers and taxes on the productive sector, downsizing the government, combating corruption with technology, and revitalizing energy exploration.

I sincerely wish for Abelardo de la Espriella to be the victor. My concern regarding a presidency under Iván Cepeda does not stem from denying the need for social justice or reforms, but rather from his position as a political heir to Petro and a program that expands state intervention in a nation that, above all, needs security, investment, employment, and unequivocal respect for institutional boundaries. I fear that, under slogans of peace and justice, Colombia may drift towards a model of concentrated power, growing bureaucracy, and weakened freedoms.

Colombia deserves reforms, yes; but reforms that strengthen democracy, property rights, private initiative, and the rule of law, not that pave the way for another tragedy like the one in Venezuela. Social justice cannot become an excuse to weaken freedom, punish those who produce, or hand over the country to an all-powerful bureaucracy. That is why today I hope that Colombians choose security, freedom, growth, and a democracy with strong institutions.

Of course, the final word belongs to the Colombian people, and it must be respected. Just as all human rights must always be respected.