A senior official from the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) publicly acknowledged that the island's economy cannot continue managing its crisis with the same old tools and that the country needs a profound structural transformation in order to recover.
Ian Pedro Carbonell Karell, director of the Macroeconomic Policy Directorate of the BCC and member of the National Assembly of People's Power, made this statement on the program “Cuadrando la Caja”, broadcast by Canal Caribe to analyze the package of reforms approved last week.
"The forecasts for the gross domestic product are quite negative, including the recent predictions made by CEPAL. Indeed, we are facing a crisis situation. In my opinion, beyond managing the crisis, it is about transforming the way the economy functions in order to curb the crisis, recover, and emerge from it," stated Carbonell Karell.
The official was more explicit at another point in the program, warning that the country must undertake deep transformations in its economy and create instruments that can generate wealth and value.
The statements come just days after the National Assembly approved 176 reform measures on June 18, organized into 23 axes, which include the authorization of private banking, non-state currency exchange, foreign investment in the Cuban private sector, and the elimination of universal subsidies.
Carbonell Karell described a severe macroeconomic scenario: a drop in remittances through official channels, a contraction in exports and foreign investment, limited access to external credits, uncontrolled monetary issuance, a projected fiscal deficit of 74.5 billion pesos for 2026, and a national currency that is non-convertible with multiple exchange rates operating in parallel.
The CEPAL projects a decline in Cuba's GDP of 6.5% in 2026, the worst in Latin America compared to a regional average growth of 2.2%.
Independent estimates are even more pessimistic: the Economist Intelligence Unit places the contraction at 7.2%, while economist Pedro Monreal warns that it could reach 15%.
The official emphasized that the banking and financial system is "a cross-cutting" and essential element for the reforms to work, and insisted that the transformations do not mean abandoning socialism.
However, the implementation faces challenges. Carlos Miguel Pérez Reyes, a deputy and president of the mipymes commission, warned that the process requires transforming 81 higher-ranking regulations and thousands of clauses from resolutions, impacting over 5,000 economic actors.
Rafael Montejo, director of the Center for Management Techniques Studies at the University of Havana, summarized the central risk: "There are no magic wands in economics; it will undoubtedly require tremendous effort, especially in terms of implementation. The fundamental risk we face is primarily in the implementation."
Filed under: