The dollar reached 610 Cuban pesos (CUP) this Sunday in Cuba's informal market, according to data from the independent outlet elTOQUE, marking a correction that has erased 85 pesos in just one week since the historical high of 695 CUP reached on June 21.
The decline is not limited to the dollar. The euro fell another 20 pesos this Sunday, reaching 700 CUP, accumulating a decrease of 100 pesos from its own record of 800 CUP. The Convertible Currency (MLC) stands at 490 CUP, virtually unchanged from the previous day.
Other currencies are also experiencing declines. The Canadian dollar falls to 433.74 CUP (-10.43), the Zelle is quoted at 654.33 CUP (-3.81), and the CLA retreats to 566.85 CUP (-16.69). Only the Mexican peso bucked the general trend with a slight increase to 44.54 CUP.
This correction comes after an unprecedented escalation throughout June.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The dollar started the month at 585 CUP and the euro at 645 CUP; within three weeks, both currencies surged by 18.8% and 24% respectively, surpassing all analyst projections.
The Currency and Finance Observatory (OMfi) of elTOQUE had projected a ceiling of 650 CUP for the dollar for the entire month, but that barrier was crossed on June 12, more than two weeks earlier than expected.
The first sign of weakness appeared on June 23, when the MLC dropped individually 25 pesos while the dollar and euro remained at record highs. Two days later, the first joint decline of the three currencies occurred in many months, and on Friday the decline accelerated with the dollar dropping to 670 CUP and the euro to 770 CUP.
Despite the correction, the market remains fragmented. Active offers show wide ranges that reflect the resistance of some sellers: the dollar is trading between 600 and 735 CUP, the euro between 700 and 880 CUP, and the MLC between 400 and 570 CUP.
The analysis by elTOQUE warns that "sooner or later, those who sell will have to concede if they see that the rest of the market offers the dollar at a lower price and that there is no one left willing to pay the high price."
Two factors could be behind the shift.
The first is the package of 176 economic measures approved on June 19 by the National Assembly, which includes the authorization of private banks and exchange houses, as well as a digital currency market with currency auctions.
The second is the unprecedented call by Miguel Díaz-Canel for a group of critical economists as advisors.
However, independent economists maintain a skeptical stance. Pedro Monreal González was direct: "The numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like this is not a math problem, but a matter of will."
Meanwhile, five independent economists have been working since March on the Cuba Transformación project, a proposal for comprehensive reform independent of the regime aimed at creating "a social market economy, supported by a democratic rule of law."
The magnitude of the monetary crisis remains historic: in 2020, the dollar was trading at 42 CUP in the informal market; by January 2026, it had risen to 435 CUP; and on June 21, it reached 695 CUP.
The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value in six years, and this week's correction, no matter how pronounced, does not change that structural outlook.
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