The Cuban informal market awoke this Thursday with an unprecedented sign: the dollar, euro, and MLC simultaneously fell for the first time in many months, each accumulating a decrease of 10 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the last 24 hours.
The dollar fell to 685 CUP, the euro decreased to 790 CUP, and the Convertible Currency (MLC) settled at 500 CUP, according to data from elTOQUE.
Exchange rate today 25/06/2026 - 8:28 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 685 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 790 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 500 CUP.
The simultaneous drop of the three currencies comes after a devastating surge throughout June, which pushed the dollar and the euro to their all-time highs on June 21: 695 and 800 CUP, respectively.
A modest decline following an unprecedented climb
The dollar started June at 585 CUP and the euro at 645 CUP.
In just three weeks, both currencies surged by 18.8% and 24% respectively, consecutively breaking their own records.
The Currency and Finance Observatory of elTOQUE had projected a ceiling of 650 CUP for the dollar throughout the month, but that barrier was crossed on June 12, 18 days earlier than expected.
The drop this Thursday -10 CUP per currency - is modest compared to that accumulated rise, but it's the first time in recent months that all three have fallen together, making this day a turning point that the market is watching closely.
The MLC had already shown signs of weakness on Monday when it fell 25 pesos in isolation to 485 CUP, while the dollar and euro remained at their record highs.
That drop was labeled a "surprise" and did not drag down the rest of the currencies. This Thursday, all three are declining at the same time.
What might be behind the sudden stop?
Two factors from the immediate political and economic context may be influencing this shift.
The first is the package of 176 economic and social measures approved on June 19 in the National Assembly, presented by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz as the largest reform package since the Special Period.
Among the measures with the greatest potential impact on the currency market are the authorization of private banks and exchange houses, private remittance operators, a real-time digital currency market with currency auctions, and the opening of currency accounts without prior authorization.
The second factor is the unprecedented call by Miguel Díaz-Canel for an advisory group of critical economists, which includes figures such as Juan Triana, Julio Carranza, and Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva.
This openness to reformist voices, unprecedented in the recent history of the Cuban regime, could be generating some anticipation in the market.
Independent economists and their critical perspective
In parallel to the official advisory group, five independent Cuban economists - Pedro Monreal González, Mauricio De Miranda Parrondo, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, Ricardo Torres Pérez, and Pavel Vidal Alejandro - have been working since March 2026 on the Cuba Transformación project, a comprehensive economic reform proposal completely unrelated to the regime.
Monreal has not been lenient with the government's measures: “The numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like it's not a matter of math, but of willpower.”
Regarding his own project, he was clear in dissociating it from the official agenda:
"Although we are aware -like everyone else- of the economic measures recently announced by the Cuban government, the proposal we are developing does not constitute a specific assessment of those decisions nor is it directly derived from them."
The Cuba Transformación project aims to progress through three phases towards what Monreal described as a “social market economy, supported by a democratic rule of law.”
The clarification was necessary because Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, one of the members of Cuba Transformación, is also part of the advisory group convened by Díaz-Canel on June 17 to seek answers to the economic crisis, a coincidence that led some to associate both projects.
The Cuban peso in historical free fall
Beyond the events of this Thursday, historical data reveals the structural collapse of the Cuban peso: in 2020, the dollar was valued at around 42 CUP in the informal market; by January 2026, it had risen to 435 CUP; and on June 21, it reached 695 CUP.
Even after the decline this Thursday, the dollar is at 685 CUP, which represents a loss of more than 95% of the peso's value in six years.
The economist Elías Amor was emphatic in evaluating the outlook: "No foreign currency will be coming into Cuba in the coming months. The problem is that needs can be met with foreign currency, and people will be willing to pay whatever it takes for it."
A warning that reminds us that the slowdown this Thursday does not resolve the structural crisis that caused it.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) Notes to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of June 25:
1 USD = 685 CUP.
5 USD = 3,425 CUP.
10 USD = 6,850 CUP.
20 USD = 13,700 CUP.
50 USD = 34,250 CUP.
100 USD = 68,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 790 CUP.
5 EUR = 3.950 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
20 EUR = 15,800 CUP.
50 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
100 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
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