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A package of 176 economic reforms approved in an extraordinary session by the National Assembly on June 18 represents the most radical transformation attempt since the 1959 revolution, but it arrives at a time when Cuba is already on the brink of collapse, according to an analysis published by The Economist.
The measures, grouped into 23 strategic axes, aim to push the economy toward the market while the State maintains control. They would eliminate the limit of 100 workers for private companies, allow entrepreneurs to own multiple businesses, authorize private banking, and open the foreign exchange market.
State-owned companies could be sold, issue shares, and even file for bankruptcy. Universal subsidies from the supply booklet would be replaced by direct support for individuals in vulnerable situations.
The economist Juan Triana Barros from the University of Havana described the model as a "Cuban-style market socialism," although The Economist itself warns that not everyone is convinced that this is what will actually be implemented.
Skepticism is widespread. A U.S. State Department official dismissed the proposals as "superficial smoke signals."
A former translator in Havana called them a "circus."
The regime has promised changes numerous times before, only to later halt them, and the implementation of this package would require amending over 148 legal provisions, repealing 15 laws, and creating 32 new regulations.
Reforms come at the worst economic moment in the island's recent history. The economy has contracted by more than 20% since 2020.
One dollar is worth over 600 pesos in the informal market, which means the monthly minimum wage is just five dollars.
The official inflation rate approached 16% year-on-year in May, although the real rate is considerably higher.
Tourism fell by 58% in the first five months of the year, with only 30,883 visitors in May.
Power outages last up to 22 hours a day even in the center of Havana. "It's exhausting," said a father of two in the capital to The Economist. Water is available every other day.
Washington's pressure is a central factor in this scenario. Since January 2026, the Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions against the regime, intercepted at least seven oil tankers, and reduced the island's energy imports by between 80% and 90%.
On June 23, the State Department sanctioned new entities linked to GAESA, the military conglomerate that dominates the formal Cuban economy, including AUSA, which controlled container traffic at the port of Mariel.
Days later, GAESA sold those assets to a new company, Coral Marítima S.A., in what analysts interpret as a maneuver to evade sanctions.
Political repression shows no signs of easing. On June 20, the moderate opposition figure Manuel Cuesta Morúa was detained, beaten, and threatened with death by State Security agents for supporting protests involving loud banging of pots and pans, which are recurring each night in various locations across the country.
He was released the next day without the regime freeing any political prisoners, despite the demands from Washington.
Cubans fear that any opening will primarily benefit those close to the regime and those who already have resources, while the ordinary population remains vulnerable to the hyperinflation that market changes could unleash, without a social safety net to support them.
"This is a lot," summarized Paolo Spadoni from Augusta University. "But it's not enough."
Trump bets that increased pressure will force deeper changes; the regime is betting on surviving or negotiating. Ordinary Cubans fear losing in any scenario.
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