A dozen Cuban specialists in infrastructure, economics, engineering, urban planning, and law are working from Miami on designing a roadmap for the reconstruction of Cuba in the event of a democratic transition.
Far from being limited to a political debate, the initiative seeks to address a specific question: What needs to be done in the first months and years to restore a country marked by the deterioration of its basic services and economy?
That was the focus of the forum "Initiative for a Democratic and Economic Alternative for Cuba", held at the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora this Wednesday. Experts from various disciplines began presenting sector-specific plans with cost estimates, timelines, and priorities.
The initiative brings together the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora, the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University (FIU), the Cuban American Engineers Association, the Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba, and other organizations, with the aim of preparing technical proposals ahead of a potential political change on the Island.
What do the plans consist of?
TNT24 interviewed several experts participating in the forum. The specialists agreed that Cuba's recovery would not begin with large projects, but rather with the restoration of essential services and the creation of conditions to attract investments.
"In this forum, we begin with infrastructure, which is the main economic engine for that reconstruction, but there will be others focusing on aspects such as housing. The legal system, which is the most important, is scheduled for September, as we will receive assistance from prominent legal experts," stated Marcell Felipe, president of the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora.
Among the main proposals put forward are:
- Rebuilding the electrical system is considered one of the priorities to end the blackouts. Researcher Jorge Piñón estimated that the recovery of the sector would cost between 5 billion and 8 billion dollars and take between three and five years. "The cost of recovering the electrical sector in Cuba would be between 5 billion and 8 billion dollars and will take three to five years," he stated.
- Restore the drinking water and sewage systems. Engineer Josenrique Cueto estimated that the necessary investment would be around 8 billion dollars. He explained, "an initial recovery could be feasible in about 24 months. However, having a functioning, stable, and consistent system would take at least between five and ten years."
- Modernizing roads, ports, railways, and cities. During the meeting, it was noted that a significant portion of the national infrastructure remains operational, although it has accumulated decades of deterioration, requiring extensive rehabilitation.
- Address the housing deficit, estimated at around one million homes, through future specific programs that will be discussed in new conferences.
- Design a new legal framework that guarantees private property, legal security, and investment protection, regarded as an essential requirement for attracting capital.
- Boosting a gradual economic recovery. Participants suggested that an initial stage could focus on revitalizing tourism and port activity to generate income that would facilitate financing for other investments.
- Restructuring the energy sector. Among the proposals is to review the future of existing refineries and redesign the strategy for fuel production and supply.
How much would it cost to rebuild Cuba?
The figures presented during the forum reflect the magnitude of the challenge. Rafael Romeu, president of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, estimated that the first 180 days of stabilization would require between 180 and 270 million dollars, primarily financed through private U.S. capital.
The businessman Luis Ajamil, president and CEO of Bermello Ajamil & Partners, noted that there will be several phases following the fall of the regime for the reconstruction of Cuba.
"In the first phase, I believe it makes the most sense to start with tourism, bringing in the large ships, because that's already in place, it generates revenue, and it attracts investment. Gradually, as the economy begins to recover, the cargo aspect can come in," he stated.
Experts estimate that in a second phase, the comprehensive recovery of the country—including energy, infrastructure, housing, agriculture, tourism, and telecommunications—would require between 275 billion and 375 billion dollars over a period of 10 to 15 years.
Why are they making these plans now?
The organizers argue that any eventual transition will require immediate decisions and that waiting for a political change to begin designing them would mean wasting valuable time.
Marcell Felipe emphasized that the diaspora has the technical knowledge and the capital necessary to engage in the country's recovery.
"We have the human talent, the capacity, and the private capital in exile that is ready to invest immediately to rebuild the country, without the American government participating in those areas. However, all of this hinges on one essential issue, which is regime change."
Political change, an indispensable condition
Beyond the figures and technical projects, the consensus of the forum was that none of these proposals could be implemented without a transformation of the Cuban political system and the country's laws.
Regarding the importance of the legal system for developing Cuba, architect and urban planner Willy Bermello stated: "First, there must be a legal framework that protects all types of private investment; otherwise, capital will not flow in. There needs to be the assurance of a democratic balance in Cuba, something that does not exist today."
The importance of these plans lies in their aim to avoid improvisation during a transitional period.
The intention is to have defined diagnoses, projects, and priorities to accelerate the recovery of public services, build trust among investors, and lay the groundwork for long-term economic reconstruction.
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