The Electric Union (UNE) forecasts an impact of 2,260 MW during the peak nighttime hours this Thursday, with a availability of only 970 MW against a projected maximum demand of 3,200 MW.
According to the official information note from the organization, the night of Wednesday resulted in a devastating outcome. The highest impact reached 2,162 MW at 10:50 PM, affecting all provinces of the country throughout the 24 hours of the day, including the early morning.
Lázaro Guerra Hernández, General Director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, confirmed the situation in statements to the state channel Canal Caribe.
"The service disruptions we are anticipating are significant throughout the day, reaching a maximum system demand of 2,260 megawatts. The operation of the system is very complicated."
In the early hours of Thursday, generation availability dropped to just 890 MW in the National Load Dispatch, with an impact estimated at around 1,800 MW by dawn. By noon, the estimated impact was 1,500 MW, a figure that would rise to 2,260 MW during the peak evening consumption hours.
The breakdown of power plants is extensive. Units 5 and 6 of the Máximo Gómez Thermal Power Plant (Mariel) are out of service due to failures, as are units 1 and 2 of the Ernesto Guevara De La Serna Thermal Power Plant (Santa Cruz), unit 6 of the Diez de Octubre Thermal Power Plant (Nuevitas), unit 2 of the Lidio Ramón Pérez Thermal Power Plant (Felton), and unit 3 of the Antonio Maceo Thermal Power Plant (Renté).
In addition, other units are in scheduled maintenance at the plants in Santa Cruz, Renté, and Nuevitas.
Guerra Hernández indicated that only the incorporation of Unit 2 of Santa Cruz, with 80 MW, is anticipated during the day. Unit 5 of Mariel will undergo a hydraulic test and could be added "by the end of the night, but never for the peak demand."
Distributed generation is also stalled: 106 plants are out of service due to lack of fuel, along with the Patana de Regla, the Patana de Melones, the Central Fuel of Mariel, and the Central Fuel of Moa.
The official summarized the structural causes of the collapse. "It's a combination of those two elements: the lack of fuel and the fact that we actually have a significant number of generating units out of service, whether due to breakdowns or maintenance, which results in reduced availability and high disruptions throughout the day."
The 54 photovoltaic solar parks in the country generated 5,255 MWh on Wednesday, with a maximum power output of 863 MW, providing relief during daylight hours. However, they do not address the nighttime deficit when the crisis worsens.
This event is set against a backdrop of accelerated deterioration that has included at least five total blackouts of the electrical system so far in 2026: July 6, 10, and 14 were the three most recent, with the last one being fully restored only on July 15 at 7:00 AM.
On July 8, a deficit of 2,341 MW was recorded, described as the largest in the country’s history, a record that the crisis this Thursday threatens to approach once again.
Filed under: