The average rate for 30-year mortgages in the United States reached 6.58% this Thursday, its highest level in nearly a year, according to the mortgage entity Freddie Mac.
The data, collected by The Associated Press, represents an increase from the 6.55% of the previous week and places the cost of mortgage financing at its highest point since August 21, 2025.
The main trigger of this surge is the military conflict with Iran, which began at the end of February 2026, significantly raising crude oil prices and reviving inflationary fears in the U.S. economy.
Before the war broke out, the average rate had dropped slightly below 6% for the first time since late 2022, a decline that the Trump administration celebrated as an economic achievement. Since then, the trend has been steadily upward.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond —a key benchmark that lenders use to set mortgage rates— stood at 4.7% at noon this Thursday, compared to the 3.97% it was at before the conflict began.
Credit institutions closely monitor that indicator, so its rise affects mortgage rates as well.
"The rise in oil prices, as the war with Iran intensifies, threatens to worsen inflation, just as it was beginning to slow down more than economists had anticipated," noted the AP agency in its report.
The inflation in the U.S. increased from 3.3% in March to 4.2% in June 2026, mainly driven by the energy component linked to the conflict. The price of Brent crude approached 91 dollars in mid-July, compared to around 72 dollars at the beginning of the month.
That environment pressures the Federal Reserve to consider new increases in its short-term interest rate, which could, in turn, push bond yields even higher, along with mortgages.
Although the central bank does not directly set mortgage rates, its decisions are closely monitored by investors in the bond market.
The impact on homebuyers is direct: higher rates can add hundreds of dollars per month in costs for borrowers, reducing their purchasing power and leading many to postpone buying a home. Home sales in the country have been stagnant throughout 2026.
The 15-year mortgage rate also rose to 5.96% from 5.93% the previous week. Exactly a year ago, the 30-year rate was at 6.74%, meaning the current level is still below that of July 2025, although the recent trend clearly indicates an upward movement.
The situation is particularly concerning in Florida, a state with a high concentration of the Cuban community, which leads the country in mortgage foreclosures in the U.S. following the increase in rates recorded in July 2026.
Miami-Dade was already one of the least affordable markets in the country, with average housing prices around $415,000 and mortgage costs accounting for more than 80% of the average household income.
Market analysis, such as that published by MarketWatch, openly questions whether if the conflict with Iran continues to put pressure on energy prices and inflation does not ease.
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