The economist Javier Pérez Capdevila, PhD in Economic Sciences, published a damning analysis of the recent wage increase on the Island, which he described as a "monetary illusion" that does not resolve the purchasing power of Cubans.
The new minimum wage of 3,210 pesos —an increase of 53% compared to the 2,100 pesos that have remained unchanged since January 2021— went into effect on July 1, although workers will not see it reflected until August, when they receive the salary for July.
Pérez presents the numbers clearly: "A minimum wage that will now be 3,210 pesos does not even reach one-thirtieth of a basic basket which today, and the maximum that will reach up to 14,535 is not even one-sixth, because in the markets where we actually shop, a basic basket exceeds 100,000 pesos per month for one person, without even considering some basic needs."
The economist himself had estimated in a study from May 2026 that a person needs around 96,060 pesos monthly to cover their basic needs in Cuba, of which over 70,000 pesos are allocated solely for food.
Prices in the informal market illustrate the extent of the gap: a pound of rice costs 360 pesos, black beans 450 pesos, a liter of vegetable oil approaches 3,000 pesos, and a carton of 30 eggs ranges between 3,000 and 4,000 pesos, an amount equal to or greater than the full minimum wage.
A basic weekly purchase can exceed 21,000 pesos, more than three times the new monthly minimum.
The economist describes the phenomenon as a psychological trap: "The hardest part is the mental trap. You feel like you are earning more, you even see it on paper, but when you go out into the street the money stretches less than before. That is the monetary illusion: more bills in your wallet, yes, but less food on the table."
It does not help that prices have risen before the increase took effect. "There is no salary that has doubled with this law, no matter how many times they repeat the figure. Meanwhile, the prices of essential goods are almost doubling and more beforehand," warns Pérez.
The economist concludes without ambiguity: "The increase is an illusion. It is not a fundamental solution; it's a mirage that dissolves with inflation. Meanwhile, the Cuban continues to perform wonders to stretch a day that always ends too soon and a salary that never, ever reaches."
The exchange gap exacerbates the situation: with the dollar trading between 660 and 695 pesos in the informal market, the 3,210 pesos amount to just 4.65 dollars per month.
The peso has devalued by more than 95% since 2021, when the Tarea Ordenamiento set it at 24 pesos per dollar.
Interestingly, regime officials themselves acknowledged the inadequacy of the adjustment. The director of Labor Organization, Guillermo Sarmiento, admitted that the 3,210 pesos "are still insufficient to cover the basic basket of goods and services," and Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz stated before the National Assembly that the increase "is still insufficient, but it is a first step based on real possibilities".
The measure, formalized through a set of resolutions from the Ministry of Labor and Social Security —including resolutions 14/2026 and 15/2026—, benefits approximately 1.2 million workers, mainly in the budgeted sector, including employees in Health, Education, Culture, and Public Administration.
The increase is part of the 176 economic and social transformations approved by the National Assembly on June 18, 2026.
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