The administration of President Donald Trump is looking for a figure in Cuba who can play a role similar to that of Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela: someone from within the regime itself who can assume power in a transition scenario and work closely with the United States.
This is one of the central elements of a study published this Friday by The New York Times, which claims that the administration has pressured U.S. intelligence agencies to identify a current or former official of the Cuban regime who could become a potential alternative for power in Havana.
The precedent that Washington has on the table is Venezuela.
After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January, Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of interim president and became the figure responsible for leading the Venezuelan state apparatus in the new political landscape.
According to the Times, U.S. officials regarded Rodríguez as a pragmatic leader who could assume power without causing an institutional vacuum and who would be willing to work closely with Washington.
Some officials from the Trump administration believe it is possible to find a similar figure in Cuba. However, U.S. intelligence agencies have warned of a problem: the Cuban regime does not seem to have an easily identifiable Delcy Rodríguez.
According to people informed about the intelligence assessments cited by the newspaper, U.S. agencies believe that, from the perspective of a potential succession, Cuba resembles Iran more than Venezuela.
The difference is crucial for Washington's plans.
The evaluations maintain that there are few pragmatic officials well-positioned to take power if Raúl Castro were to be removed from the political scene or if the United States managed to force the exit of the current leadership.
On the contrary, several of the figures waiting in the wings would belong to the regime's more hardline sectors.
This poses a clear risk for any U.S. strategy: provoking the fall or displacement of a part of the leadership does not necessarily guarantee that those who take their place will be more willing to negotiate with Washington.
It could even happen the opposite.
The Times recalls that the United States and Israel faced similar difficulties during their plans for Iran, where the search for leaders deemed more pragmatic turned out to be much more complex than anticipated.
The U.S. interest in finding a candidate from within the system reveals the kind of scenario Washington is analyzing.
The newspaper summarizes the strategy with a significant expression: it would be more of an "alteration of the regime" than a "regime change".
In Cuba, however, finding that "Delcy" is much more complicated due to the closed structure of power and the influence held by sectors connected to the military, security, and intelligence apparatuses.
The American search comes at a time when the CIA is intensifying its operations related to the island.
The New York Times revealed this week that the agency secretly created a task force dedicated specifically to Cuba with the mission to exploit divisions within the ruling elite and promote the rise of figures deemed more pragmatic.
The strategy also adds a new dimension to the visit that the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, made to Havana on May 14th.
Ratcliffe met with figures located at the heart of the Cuban security apparatus, including the Minister of the Interior, Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas; Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, "El Cangrejo," grandson of Raúl Castro; and the head of the Intelligence Directorate of MININT, Ramón Romero Curbelo.
Washington faces a paradox: increasing pressure on the Cuban leadership could create an opportunity to modify the island's political system, but its own intelligence agencies warn that the available replacement may not be more pragmatic than those currently in power.
The search for a "Cuban Delcy Rodríguez" thus becomes a central piece —and still unresolved— of Trump's strategy toward the island.
Related videos:
Filed under: