Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and the grandson of Raúl Castro, along with the Minister of the Interior, Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, emerge as two potential figures that Washington might consider acceptable in a possible political transition process in Cuba, as revealed this Friday by The New York Times.
The American newspaper reported that the administration of Donald Trump has been looking for some time among current and former officials of the Cuban regime for a figure capable of assuming power in Havana and working with Washington in the event of a change in the current leadership.
The model being studied by the White House is similar to the one implemented in Venezuela with Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed the presidency on an interim basis after the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January.
According to the Times, U.S. officials viewed Delcy as a pragmatic figure capable of taking control of the state apparatus without causing a power vacuum, while also working closely with Washington.
The Trump administration would be looking for a comparable profile within Cuba, although assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies warn that there are few pragmatic officials well-positioned to take the reins of the country.
In that context, the names of "El Cangrejo" and Álvarez Casas emerge.
The newspaper reports that it is unclear whom the White House would ultimately prefer as a potential alternative within the Cuban power structure, but it states that the Trump administration might be open to Rodríguez Castro.
«El Cangrejo» has remained very close to his grandfather, Raúl Castro, for years as a member of his security team, although he has never held a top-level public position or any institutional representation.
The Times adds that Álvarez Casas, the current Minister of the Interior, could also be considered acceptable to U.S. officials.
The remark is particularly significant because Álvarez Casas leads one of the main security and repression apparatuses of the Cuban regime and is sanctioned by the United States under the Global Magnitsky Act.
The newspaper does not name the U.S. officials who support these assessments. The investigation relies on current and former U.S. officials, as well as individuals knowledgeable about intelligence reports.
It does not assert that Washington has formally selected Rodríguez Castro or Álvarez Casas to lead a transition, but rather presents them as figures who could be considered acceptable in the U.S. search for interlocutors capable of taking on responsibilities in a potential change of power.
The revelation now provides a new context to the unusual visit that CIA director John Ratcliffe made to Havana on May 14th.
CiberCuba then reported that Ratcliffe met directly with "El Cangrejo" and Álvarez Casas, in addition to Brigadier General Ramón Romero Curbelo, head of the Intelligence Directorate of MININT.
The presence of Rodríguez Castro at that meeting was reported by Axios and USA Today, citing officials from the CIA.
Ratcliffe then delivered a message from Trump: Washington was willing to negotiate on economic and security issues, but demanded "fundamental changes" in Cuba.
A CIA official quoted at the time noted that the discussions addressed cooperation in intelligence, economic stability, and security matters.
The meeting was particularly notable because it brought before the director of the main U.S. intelligence agency figures directly connected to the regime's security core and to Raúl Castro's circle.
The new information from the New York Times allows for an additional perspective on that meeting: two of the men who were sitting across from Ratcliffe are now mentioned as figures that could be deemed acceptable to Washington in a potential succession scenario.
The Times reports that the Trump administration has asked its intelligence agencies to identify any current or former Cuban official who could play a role similar to that of Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela.
However, the intelligence assessments cited by the newspaper present challenges for replicating that model on the island.
According to those assessments, Cuba would be more akin to Iran than to Venezuela: there are few leaders considered pragmatic who are prepared to take power, while several of the figures in the second tier would represent even more hardline sectors.
The investigation comes just two days after the newspaper itself revealed that the CIA secretly created a working group specifically focused on Cuba with the aim of exploiting divisions within the ruling elite and promoting the rise of leaders considered more pragmatic and receptive to Trump's demands.
That special group would already be incorporating specialists in source recruitment, intelligence analysts, experts in cyber operations, and personnel specialized in covert influence operations.
The combination of both revelations paints a scenario in which Washington is not only increasing pressure on the current Cuban leadership but is also trying to identify who might fill power roles if that pressure leads to a reconfiguration of the regime.
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