Worrisome estimate from the U.S. following the earthquake in Colombia: the most likely scenario suggests between 100 and 1,000 dead

Earthquake in ColombiaPhoto © YouTube TV Perú Noticias (image captured and edited with AI)

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) issued an orange alert on Monday through its PAGER seismic assessment system following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake that struck the west of Colombia.

Estimates place the most likely scenario of fatalities between 100 and 1,000 people, although the actual number of deaths could be higher.

The earthquake, with its epicenter in the municipality of San José del Palmar, in the department of Chocó, occurred at 7:34 AM local time at a depth of approximately 110 kilometers, according to data from the USGS PAGER.

The preliminary confirmed toll by local authorities amounts to between 21 and 22 deaths: 18 fatalities in Pereira, according to Mayor Mauricio Salazar; two or three victims in Manizales following the collapse of multiple structures; and one person killed in Buenaventura due to severe damage to buildings.

In Cali, a four-story building collapsed, and emergency teams were working to rescue possible survivors, while in Manizales, one of the towers of the cathedral sustained severe damage and was leaning against the center of the structure.

The orange alert from the USGS indicates that "significant casualties and damage are expected, and the disaster is potentially widespread," requiring a response at the regional or national level.

Regarding material losses, PAGER estimated that the economic damage will be "less than 1% of Colombia's GDP."

Several airports were closed due to damage to their infrastructure. The governor of Chocó, Nubia Carolina Córdoba Curi, was the first official to confirm the impacts.

"Although the epicenter was San José del Palmar, there are injured people and significant damage to buildings in the capital, Quibdó," warned Córdoba Curi.

The General Maritime Directorate (DIMAR) dismissed any tsunami threat for the Colombian Pacific coast, and the mayor of Bogotá, Carlos Galán, reported that only "some cracks in buildings" were noted in the capital, with no significant structural damage.

The earthquake was also felt in Ecuador and Panama, although no damage has been confirmed in those countries.

The event occurs weeks after a double earthquake with magnitudes of 7.1 and 7.5 devastated Venezuela in June 2026, leaving at least 6,125 dead according to the Venezuelan government's report as of August 5, in what was considered the strongest quake recorded in that country since 1900.

For that event, the USGS issued a red alert with a 42% probability of between 10,000 and 100,000 victims, highlighting the scale difference between the two disasters, although the one in Colombia remains an event with potentially serious consequences for the entire region.

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CiberCuba Editorial Team

A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.

CiberCuba Editorial Team

A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.