The Cuban-American businessman Raul Mas Canosa stated that a regime change in Cuba is inevitable before the end of 2026 or, at the latest, by early 2027, and he did not rule out that this change could come through military means. His comments are part of an interview given to Tania Costa for CiberCuba following the primaries held on Tuesday, August 18, in Florida.
«There is going to be a change in Cuba, whether it is peaceful or violent. And that depends on those in Cuba. How do they want to exit power? Do they want to leave alive or do they want to leave dead? It's as simple as that. I see it as black or white,» stated Mas Canosa, the younger brother of the historic exiled leader Jorge Mas Canosa.
Regarding Washington's operational capacity, the banker and political analyst was straightforward: "We have military forces in the area. They are ready. If given the order tomorrow, it's not a matter of having to start organizing and bringing a warship from here or there. The troops are already there. Any type of military activity could be conducted in a relatively short period of time."
That scenario becomes relevant in the context of the new leadership of Southern Command under General Francis Donovan, who assumed his position in February 2026 and met with commanders of the Revolutionary Armed Forces in the vicinity of Guantánamo Naval Base in May, in a gathering described as unusual. Donovan himself, however, stated before the Senate in March that "there are no drills or military preparations to invade, occupy, or control Cuba."
The Cuban-American businessman also emphasized that he is convinced the new head of U.S. Southern Command conveyed a clear message to the Cuban regime during his visit in May 2026: "Either you change or I will change you. Period."
Mas Canosa acknowledged that Washington has not yet made the decision to act. “I don’t believe they have made that decision yet. They are giving it more time to see if certain people come to understand that this is not going to end well for them.”
The banker also admitted that the situation has become more complicated compared to his initial expectations, but he maintained his forecast. "I always thought there would be a change by the end of the year, but if not by then, maybe it will be at the beginning of next year."
His opinions about General Francis Donovan are based on a meeting they had in May. Raul Mas Canosa spoke to him about his brother Jorge, and Donovan agreed to pose with him, shaking hands. "The man is definitely different from the other chiefs of Southcom. I talked to him about my brother Jorge and his endless battle against the Castros. I mentioned that our family continues that fight. We took our first photo, side by side. After hearing my story, the general insisted on taking another photo of us shaking hands," Raul Mas Canosa explained regarding the origin of the image accompanying this article.
Regarding the message that, in his opinion, is being conveyed to the Cuban regime, Mas Canosa was emphatic: "I believe they are sending the message, perhaps not in the way I'm expressing it, but I think in those conversations they are telling them exactly the same thing: willingly or by force. You decide."
The interviewer asked him if the regime could resort to the same strategy used by Fidel Castro during the 1994 raft crisis —to open the borders to relieve internal pressure— when more than 35,000 Cubans left by sea in precarious vessels towards the United States. However, Canosa replied with a single sentence: "I don't think so."
His statements come at a time of acute economic crisis on the island, with blackouts that could worsen the internal situation and projections of a GDP decline of between 6.5% and 7.2% for 2026. The regime, for its part, declared in July that it would withstand any military aggression.
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