Cuban-American businessman Raul Mas Canosa stated that a regime change in Cuba is inevitable before the end of 2026 or, at the latest, by early 2027, and he did not rule out that this change could come through military means. His remarks are part of an interview granted to Tania Costa for CiberCuba following the primaries held on Tuesday, August 18, in Florida.
"There is going to be a change in Cuba, whether it be good or bad. And that depends on those who are in Cuba. How do they want to leave power? Do they want to leave alive or do they want to leave dead? It's that simple. I see it as black or white," stated Mas Canosa, younger brother of the historical exiled leader Jorge Mas Canosa.
Regarding Washington's operational capacity, the banker and political analyst was straightforward: "We have military forces in the area. They are ready. If tomorrow they receive the order, it's not a matter of having to organize and bring a warship from here or there. The troops are already there. Any type of military activity could be carried out in a relatively short period of time."
That scenario becomes relevant in the context of the new leadership of the Southern Command under General Francis Donovan, who took office in February 2026 and met with commanders of the Revolutionary Armed Forces in the vicinity of the Guantanamo Naval Base in May, in a meeting described as unusual. Donovan himself, however, testified before the Senate in March that "there are no drills or military preparations to invade, occupy, or control Cuba."
The Cuban-American businessman also emphasized that he is convinced the new head of the United States Southern Command conveyed a clear message to the Cuban regime during the visit in May 2026: "Either you change or I will change you. Period."
Mas Canosa acknowledged that Washington has not yet made the decision to act. “I don’t think they have made that decision yet. They are giving more time to see if certain people come to understand that this is not going to end well for them.”
The banker also admitted that the situation has become more complicated compared to his initial expectations, but he maintained his forecast. "I always thought there would be a change by the end of the year, but if it's not by then, perhaps it will be at the beginning of next year."
His opinions about General Francis Donovan are based on a meeting they had in May. Raul Mas Canosa spoke to him about his brother Jorge, and Donovan agreed to pose with him, shaking hands. "The man is definitely different from the other heads of Southern Command. I talked to him about my brother Jorge and his endless battle against the Castros. I mentioned that our family continues this fight. We took an initial photo, standing side by side. After hearing my story, the general insisted we take another photo shaking hands," Raul Mas Canosa explained regarding the origin of the image that accompanies this article.
Regarding the message that, in his opinion, is being conveyed to the Cuban regime, Mas Canosa was emphatic: "I believe the message is being sent to them, perhaps not in the way I am expressing it, but I think in those conversations they are being told exactly the same thing: willingly or by force. You decide."
The interviewer asked him if the regime could resort to the same strategy that Fidel Castro employed during the 1994 balseros crisis —opening the borders to ease internal pressure— when more than 35,000 Cubans left by sea in precarious vessels towards the United States. However, Canosa replied with a single sentence: "I don't think so."
His statements come at a time of severe economic crisis on the island, with blackouts that could worsen the internal situation and projections of a GDP decline between 6.5% and 7.2% for 2026. The regime, for its part, declared in July that it would withstand any military aggression.
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