A panel of experts convened at the Florida International University (FIU) discussed this Friday the possible paths toward political change in Cuba, ranging from a U.S. military intervention to a negotiated exit with the dictatorship, according to a report by Univision.
The event, organized by the Institute of Cuban Studies and the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at FIU, brought together activist Carolina Barrero, political scientist Armando Chaguaceda Noriega, and national security analyst Brian Fonseca, moderated by Sebastián Arcos, director of the Institute of Cuban Studies and former Cuban political prisoner.
The panel on transition scenarios in Cuba takes place at a time of maximum pressure from Washington on Havana and unprecedented internal crisis on the island.
The most likely scenario: more of the same
Far from anticipating an imminent change, experts agreed that the most feasible short-term path is not the most hopeful.
“The most likely scenario given the current indications is a prolongation of the current status quo of incremental measures, economic sanctions, and diplomatic actions,” noted Armando Chaguaceda.
"The nature of the regime and the decision-making structure is ready to, under these pressures, transfer the human cost to the population," he added. Participants emphasized that Havana has shown an extraordinary ability to survive amidst the crisis, and it does so at a cost that is borne not by the nomenclature but by the population.
Four scenarios, none guaranteed
Experts debated four major paths for change: humanitarian or military intervention by the United States, limited coercive action, internal fracture of the regime, and negotiated concessions.
About the military dimension, Chaguaceda was direct: “Military pressure will also play an important role, meaning that there is a credible threat.”
However, it was noted that unilateral pressure has its limits.
"The only sanctions that work are multilateral ones, which is why it is also important for other actors to join in," he noted.
Fonseca, who together with Liany Díaz González published in June 2026 in Americas Quarterly the analysis "Cuba's Crisis: Four Near-Term Scenarios", has warned that the judicial processing of Raúl Castro and five co-defendants "establishes a legal framework that could be used to justify coercive measures, similar to what preceded the capture of Nicolás Maduro."
Political change does not equate to democracy
Carolina Barrero issued a warning that summarizes the central dilemma of the moment:
"The political transformation that Cuba is currently undergoing does not necessarily imply a shift towards democracy. And that is the main concern and focus that we, as opposition Cubans, must have today."
That distinction —between political change and democratic transition— ran throughout the debate and reflects the fear that the regime could mutate in form without relinquishing real power.
Experts also pointed out that the regime "is skilled at buying time" and is closely watching the elections in November in the United States.
The enigma of Raúl Castro
Another central theme was the figure of Raúl Castro, 95 years old, and the impact that his eventual death could have on the stability of the regime.
Experts were cautious about it.
"It won't be the same as Fidel's death, because when Fidel died, there was already a clear succession. Raúl Castro was already in charge. This is the first time there will be no one in historical leadership, as they call it; neither Fidel nor Raúl will be present. However, I believe that basically the family structure on one side and the political party apparatus should be preparing for this," remarked one of the panelists.
Raúl Castro has not held formal positions since 2021. He was publicly seen on August 14 during the events commemorating Fidel Castro's centenary, but he missed the July 26 event for the first time in decades.
Amid sanctions, crises, and protests in Cuba
Between January and August 2026, Washington imposed more than 250 new sanctions against Cuba, focusing on energy, finance, and the military conglomerate GAESA.
On May 1, Trump signed Executive Order 14404, which introduced secondary sanctions against third parties engaging with sanctioned Cuban entities, and on August 20, he extended those authorities for an additional year.
While experts debate scenarios, the crisis on the island shows no signs of letting up.
The Cuban Observatory of Conflicts recorded 1,415 protests in July 2026, the highest number in its history.
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