Florida International University (FIU) will host a panel discussion this Friday on possible transition scenarios in Cuba, at a time when pressure from Washington on Havana has reached unprecedented levels in decades.
The event, organized by the Institute of Cuban Studies and the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, will take place on August 28 at 7:00 PM at the Modesto A. Maidique campus in Miami, in room 102 of the SIPA II building.
The debate will revolve around three main avenues: negotiation, regime collapse, and military intervention. The official summons describes the Cuban regime as being "on the brink of an inevitable change" due to the combination of economic collapse, loss of political legitimacy, and the tightening of U.S. sanctions.
Three panelists with complementary profiles will lead the discussion. Carolina Barrero, founder and executive director of Citizenship and Freedom, arrived in Miami in mid-August to begin a doctorate in literary studies at the University of Miami.
Activist and art historian, she has argued that the fall of the dictatorship does not by itself guarantee a consolidated democracy and that civil society must have a seat at any negotiation regarding the future of the island.
Armando Chaguaceda Noriega, political scientist and historian born in Havana in 1975 and based in Mexico since 2008, is a researcher at Government and Political Analysis AC (GAPAC) and holds a PhD in History and Regional Studies.
Author of more than 30 academic articles, he specializes in processes of autocratization in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and defines the Cuban regime as a "party dictatorship." His analyses of the Cuban situation have gained prominence in academic discussions.
Brian Fonseca, Vice President for Research in Defense and National Security at FIU and Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute itself, provides the national security perspective.
In June, he published alongside Liany Diaz Gonzalez the analysis “Cuba's Crisis: Four Near-Term Scenarios,” where he identified four specific avenues: humanitarian intervention, limited coercive action, internal regime fracture, and negotiated concessions.
In that document, it was warned that the judicial prosecution of Raúl Castro and five co-defendants "establishes a legal framework that could be used to justify coercive measures, similar to what preceded the capture of Nicolás Maduro".
The panel will be moderated by Sebastián Arcos, Director of the Cuban Studies Institute at FIU, a former political prisoner in Cuba and a veteran human rights activist who joined the university in 1995.
The event takes place in a context of maximum pressure from the Trump administration on Havana. Between January and August 2026, Washington imposed more than 240 new sanctions against Cuba, focused on energy, finance, and the military conglomerate GAESA.
On May 1, Trump signed an executive order that expanded those measures and introduced secondary sanctions against third parties conducting business with sanctioned Cuban entities.
This is not the first time that FIU has led this debate. In February, it organized the conference "Cuba: The Day After Tomorrow", where analysts presented five transition scenarios and estimated that the immediate stabilization of the island would cost between 180 and 270 million dollars in the first 180 days, and that total recovery could reach between 275 and 375 billion dollars over a period of 10 to 15 years.
The event is free and open to the public. Those wishing to confirm their in-person attendance can write to ics@fiu.edu or call (305) 348-1991.
Fonseca summarized the moment accurately: “Cuba is at a decisive crossroads. The convergence of economic deterioration, rising social discontent, intensified pressure from the U.S., and increasing international scrutiny has created a new range of possible outcomes.”
Related videos:
Filed under: